Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with six NFL predictions for Week 17.
The data-driven NFL picks for Week 17 include three touchdown picks plus two predictions for Sunday Night Football between the Falcons and Commanders.
NFL Predictions Week 17
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Dallas Cowboys” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/dal.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Eagles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Indianapolis Colts” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”New York Giants” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nygd.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Indianapolis Colts” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”New York Giants” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nygd.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Miami Dolphins” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Browns” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Washington Commanders” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/was.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:20 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Washington Commanders” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/was.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:20 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Saquon Barkley Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Saquon Barkley 2+ Touchdowns (+260)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/dal.png” awayname=”Cowboys” awayslug=”dallas-cowboys” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” homename=”Eagles” homeslug=”philadelphia-eagles” date=”Sunday, Dec. 29″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
This year, the biggest impediment to Saquon Barkley scoring touchdowns hasn’t been opposing defenses — it’s been Jalen Hurts.
On the season, Hurts has 19 carries at the goal line, converting 11 of them into touchdowns. Barkley has 17 goal-line carries, scoring just twice. Collectively, Hurts and Barkley have averaged more than two goal-line carries per game and 1.8 rushing touchdowns overall.
Hurts is out for Week 17, and it’s unlikely that replacement Kenny Pickett sees the same usage – or has the same efficiency – from close distance.
Plus, the Eagles are playing the Cowboys, who’ve allowed the most rushing touchdowns of any team this season.
That doesn’t even include Barkley’s work in the passing game, where he’s added a pair of scores this year.
Our projections have the fair line on this prop at +240, and I’d personally make his odds slightly better than that. Either way, that’s a solid value at +260 odds.
Pick: Saquon Barkley 2+ Touchdowns (+260)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”228352″ date=”20241229″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Josh Downs Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Josh Downs Anytime Touchdown (+250)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” awayname=”Colts” awayslug=”indianapolis-colts” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nygd.png” homename=”Giants” homeslug=”new-york-giants” date=”Sunday, Dec. 29″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
Downs has excelled against single-high safety looks this year, especially Cover 3. The New York Giants play the fourth-highest rate of single-high safety, skewing more toward Cover 3 than Cover 1, which helps Downs.
Factor in the Giants’ relatively weak overall passing defense (29th overall) and Downs has a good chance to score on Sunday.
Pick: Josh Downs Anytime Touchdown (+250); 0.5 unit play
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Alec Pierce Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Alec Pierce Anytime Touchdown (+375)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” awayname=”Colts” awayslug=”indianapolis-colts” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nygd.png” homename=”Giants” homeslug=”new-york-giants” date=”Sunday, Dec. 29″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
If Downs doesn’t score, it could come at the expense of a TD to his teammate, Alec Pierce, who also has a positive coverage matchup — although not as strong as Downs’.
In this case, Pierce gets a boost by lining up mostly outside, where the Giants tend to struggle more.
Pierce should have Deonte Banks lined up opposite him quite a bit. That’s a plus for Pierce since Banks has been truly awful this year.
By taking a half-unit on each of Colts WR, we profit as long as one scores.
Pick: Alec Pierce Anytime Touchdown (+375); 0.5 unit play
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”228347″ date=”20241229″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Dolphins vs. Browns Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday (+300)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” awayname=”Dolphins” awayslug=”miami-dolphins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png” homename=”Browns” homeslug=”cleveland-browns” date=”Sunday, Dec. 29″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
News broke Saturday that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is doubtful for Sunday. Regardless of how good you think Tagovailoa is or isn’t, he clearly makes a massive difference for the Dolphins.
In four games without Tagovailoa earlier in the season, Miami scored just 40 points combined. That’s an average of just 10 points – and that was when Miami had a full week to prep a backup QB.
Now the Dolphins are taking on a Browns team that’s starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR was only able to lead the Browns to six points last week against the Bengals, who have one of the league’s worst defenses.
This one is fairly low-hanging fruit, but these are two truly awful offenses. The only likely competition is from Raiders–Saints, which is +450 at FanDuel.
You could certainly bet both at these odds, but I’ll let the bet ride on Browns-Dolphins.
Pick: Lowest Scoring Game on Sunday (+300)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”228353″ date=”20241229″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Falcons vs. Commanders Kicker Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Zane Gonzalez Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+105)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” awayname=”Cardinals” awayslug=”arizona-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” homename=”Panthers” homeslug=”carolina-panthers” date=”Sunday, Dec 22″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
After whiffing on Gonzalez last week despite multiple third-and-long situations deep in Philadelphia territory, I’m going back to the well — but for a different reason.
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels faces his worst QB coverage matchup of the season, and the worst of the week among all starters not named Mac Jones.
That means the coverages Atlanta tends to run are the coverages Daniels has struggled with most. Daniels has been great against man coverage, but the Falcons employ man coverage at one of the lowest rates in the league.
Further, against zone coverages, Daniels has been best against Cover 2, which the Falcons also use at one of the lowest rates in the league.
Instead, Atlanta plays about 68% Cover 3, 4, and 6, all of which is below average for Daniels.
So while Atlanta’s defense overall is nothing to write home about, which should produce several potential scoring trips, there may be trips where the Commanders fail to convert after a solid drive thanks to the coverage difficulties for the rookie QB.
Pick: Zane Gonzalez Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+105)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”228351″ date=”20241229″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Falcons vs. Commanders Long-Shot Prop”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Highest Scoring Team on Sunday — Commanders (+850)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” awayname=”Falcons” awayslug=”atlanta-falcons” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/was.png” homename=”Commanders” homeslug=”washington-commanders” date=”Sunday, Dec. 29″ time=”8:20 p.m. ET” network=”NBC” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
During the Commanders’ season-saving three-game winning streak, they’ve averaged over 32 points per game.
Those games came against the Eagles, Saints and Titans – all of whom have better defenses (by DVOA) than their Week 17 opponent — the Falcons.
Atlanta’s defense has looked good the past two weeks, but it played the Giants and Raiders. The Falcons’ last game against a functional offense was in Week 14 — a loss to the Vikings in which they allowed 42 points.
Equally important is the improvement to the Falcons offense with Michael Penix Jr. under center. The rookie completed two-thirds of his passes for a reasonable 7.50 yards per attempt last week, and he should continue to improve with another start under his belt.
That means Atlanta should be able to do enough to push the Commanders to stay aggressive on Sunday night. The two teams with considerably higher implied totals than Washington (Buffalo and Tampa Bay) are both expected to blow out its opponents, and could conceivably ease up if they get to 30 or so points.
I’ll be hedging this a bit by taking this game to be the highest scoring game at +440 (also on FanDuel), but at the current odds I prefer the Commanders team line.
Pick: Highest Scoring Team on Sunday — Commanders (+850)
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