Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with six NFL predictions for Week 16.
The data-driven NFL picks for Week 16 include four anytime touchdown picks, a long-shot prop bet for Lions vs. Bears and more.
NFL Predictions Week 16
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Arizona Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Carolina Panthers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Rams” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png” secondfullname=”New York Jets” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nyj.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Detroit Lions” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” secondfullname=”Chicago Bears” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Detroit Lions” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” secondfullname=”Chicago Bears” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Philadelphia Eagles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” secondfullname=”Washington Commanders” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/was.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”San Francisco 49ers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” secondfullname=”Miami Dolphins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:25 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Trey McBride Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+125)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” awayname=”Cardinals” awayslug=”arizona-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” homename=”Panthers” homeslug=”carolina-panthers” date=”Sunday, Dec 22″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
Last week, McBride officially set the record for most receiving yards without a touchdown in NFL history.
To be fair, he did rush for a touchdown earlier this season, but it’s remarkable that he’s caught 89 passes for 938 yards without a receiving touchdown.
The Cardinals seem aware of this — they targeted him from the one-yard line last week at New England, with McBride unfortunately unable to punch in the score.
This week, they’re implied for a very solid 25.8 points against the Panthers, who’ve allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends of any team in the NFL.
That makes this as good a time as any for McBride to finally catch a touchdown, and I’m happy to bet on it at plus-money.
Pick: Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+125)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227554″ date=”20241221″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tutu Atwell Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Tutu Atwell Anytime Touchdown (+950)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png” awayname=”Rams” awayslug=”los-angeles-rams” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/372790_jets.png” homename=”Jets” homeslug=”new-york-jets” date=”Sunday, Dec 22″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are two tough opponents for the Rams WRs, and even when Cooper Kupp lines up in the slot he will have a tough draw with nickel back Isaiah Oliver allowing just a 12% target rate.
The third or fourth WRs can then become a bit of an extra target threat, which boosts the value of both Robinson and Atwell.
In particular, I’m showing significant value on Atwell’s anytime TD at +950, which I have fair value closer to 7-1.
Atwell is a deep threat with a receiving grade of 94 on deep balls and 95.6 on intermediate passes, per PFF, and the Jets have struggled downfield, allowing the eighth-worst defensive DVOA against the deep pass.
Atwell has also seen his route rate tick up to 28% or more in each of the last four weeks, including an average of 41.1% over the last three games.
The Jets allow the highest fraction of production to the slot of any team, and while Atwell doesn’t line up in the slot a ton (just 25% since Kupp and Puka Nacua both returned to full snap shares), when he does, it’ll likely be in four-WR sets where he’ll avoid the Jets’ three top defensive backs.
Pick: Tutu Atwell Anytime Touchdown (+950)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227552″ date=”20241221″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Caleb Williams Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Caleb Williams Most Passing Yards on Sunday (+3000)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” awayname=”Lions” awayslug=”detroit-lions” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/598430_bears1.png” homename=”Bears” homeslug=”chicago-bears” date=”Sunday, Dec 22″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
This is by far the longest odds I’ve taken on a superlative bet this season, but I think there’s something to this one.
The Bears have a talented trio of wide receivers led by DJ Moore, with veteran Keenan Allen and emerging rookie Rome Odunze also chipping in. This looked like an ideal landing spot for a rookie quarterback – until we realized how bad the Bears’ offensive line — and coaching staff — was.
However, this week they’re taking on a Lions defense that has seven defensive linemen on injured reserve, including their top pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, and best interior defensive lineman Alim McNeill.
Detroit is also down its best cornerback (Carlton Davis), so the secondary is also a concern. On top of that, it should be a negative game script for the Bears, who are underdogs by a touchdown.
If there’s ever going to be a breakout week for Williams, this is it. I’m betting this at 0.2 units.
Pick: Caleb Williams Most Passing Yards on Sunday (+3000)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227556″ date=”20241221″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Rome Odunze Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Rome Odunze Anytime Touchdown (+310)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” awayname=”Lions” awayslug=”detroit-lions” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/598430_bears1.png” homename=”Bears” homeslug=”chicago-bears” date=”Sunday, Dec 22″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
Continuing with the theme of “This Lions defense is a mess,” I’m interested in the anytime touchdown market for a variety of Bears pieces.
My favorite (price considered) of those is Odunze.
I’m always looking to buy in on rookie pass-catchers late in the season, as they learn an NFL route tree and build chemistry with their quarterback.
Odunze has the deepest average depth of target (aDOT) of the Bears receivers. That’s been problematic with an offensive line unable to keep Caleb Williams upright long enough for those routes to develop.
However, as discussed above, that’s less of an issue against the Lions. Odunze also sees most of his snaps outside, which is where the Lions secondary is particularly weak.
Detroit still has Brian Branch to line up with Keenan Allen in the slot, which should filter work Odunze’s way.
Pick: Rome Odunze Anytime Touchdown (+310)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Eagles-Commanders Kicker Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Zane Gonzalez/Greg Joseph Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+115)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” awayname=”Eagles” awayslug=”philadelphia-eagles” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/698864_Commanders.png” homename=”Commanders” homeslug=”washington-commanders” date=”Sunday, Dec 22″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
This line was up earlier in the week at BetMGM before it was taken down after Zane Gonzalez landed on the injury report with an injury to his plant foot.
Then, both Gonzalez and Greg Joseph each missed practice for the same reason – each kicker’s spouse had, or is having a baby!
It remains to be seen if any props pop back up for Commanders kickers — but if they do, I love the over here.
Washington kickers have attempts 2+ field goals in 12 of 14 games, while the Eagles have allowed 29 attempts in 14 games for an average of 2.1 per game.
The Commanders have a high-powered offense that ranks sixth in offensive DVOA, but they face an Eagles team that is strong defensively and better on early downs than the Commanders’ recent opponents.
That should allow Washington to move the ball, but likely stall out at times in third-and-long situations where they wouldn’t go for it on fourth down with an incomplete pass on third.
While I can’t bet this yet, keep an eye out for it because as soon as a line pops up on a Commanders kicker, I’ll be taking over 1.5 field goals, which was listed at +115 earlier in the week.
Pick: Zane Gonzalez/Greg Joseph Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+115)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227553″ date=”20241221″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Deebo Samuel Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Deebo Samuel Over 56.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” awayname=”49ers” awayslug=”san-francisco-49ers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” homename=”Dolphins” homeslug=”miami-dolphins” date=”Sunday, Dec 22″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
The DFS community is trying to figure out what to do with Patrick Taylor this week, as he steps in as the de facto RB1 spot for the 49ers.
San Francisco has lost Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Moore, Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo at the position. How much are they really going to trust what’s effectively their fifth option to handle a heavy workload?
The real benefactor of the running back situation might be Samuel, who’s often picked up a handful of snaps at the position when injuries occur. I would be shocked if he didn’t handle a few carries with the 49ers technically still alive for a playoff spot.
Even if he doesn’t do much on the ground, we have Samuel’s receiving yardage mean at 53.0. That’s close enough to the line that he could get there just through the air, with a few carries as a nice bonus.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 56.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227561″ date=”20241221″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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