Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with six NFL predictions for Week 13.
The data-driven NFL picks for Week 13 include props for Anthony Richardson and Saquon Barkley, plus a number of long-shot prop bets for Steelers vs. Bengals, Eagles vs. Ravens and more.
NFL Predictions Week 13
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Indianapolis Colts” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” secondfullname=”New England Patriots” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Houston Texans” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png” secondfullname=”Jacksonville Jaguars” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Steelers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Bengals” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Arizona Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Vikings” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Philadelphia Eagles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Ravens” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:25 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Philadelphia Eagles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Ravens” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:25 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Anthony Richardson Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Anthony Richardson Rushing Yards Ladder (-115)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” awayname=”Indianapolis Colts” awayslug=”indianapolis-colts” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” homename=”New England Patriots” homeslug=”new-england-patriots” date=”Sunday, Dec. 1″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
I’m going back to the well with Richardson after easily cashing his over last week against the Lions.
The thesis of the play is that rushing quarterbacks tend to put up more rushing yards when facing high rates of man coverage. Last week, Richardson ran for 61 yards (including 35 on the opening drive) against the heaviest man defense team in the NFL.
This week the Colts take on the Patriots, who play man at the second-highest rate in the league.
Rather than simply take his standard over, I’m building in some additional upside by laddering this up to 60 yards.
I wouldn’t fault anyone for pushing it a bit more, with a sprinkle on 70+ or 80+ rushing yards.
Picks:
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Over 41.5 rushing yards -113 (.5u)
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50+ rushing yards +140 (.25u)
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60+ rushing yards +230 (.25u)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227370″ date=”20241201″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Texans vs Jaguars Kicker Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Cam Little Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+120)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png” awayname=”Houston Texans” awayslug=”houston-texans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/jac.png” homename=”Jacksonville Jaguars” homeslug=”jacksonville-jaguars” date=”Sunday, Dec. 1″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
You might think the return of Trevor Lawrence — and the health of other key pieces of the Jaguars offense — means we should take the over, but I’m rolling with the under.
Houston has actually been a better opposing defense in weighted early down success rate (wEDSR) than Jacksonville has faced over the last handful of weeks. Houston’s wEDSR of 36.8% is almost 5% lower than what the Jaguars have faced with recent games weighed more heavily, so Jacksonville should be put into more third-and-long situations than it’s been facing.
And the Texans‘ wEDSR of 36.8% comes despite Houston having to face Green Bay and Detroit in the last six weeks — two high-powered offenses.
It’s also going to be tough for Lawrence to overcome those long third-down spots given he has a negative QB coverage matchup, according to Fantasy Points data.
In addition, this game is a Luck Under. Jacksonville’s Luck Team Total is -2.9, with a big part of that being Houston’s unlucky red-zone defense.
The Texans have allowed the third-highest red zone TD%, which should over time regress more toward the league average, especially because they have a good defense (as evidenced by their wEDSR).
The Jaguars like to go for two, doing so at the fifth-highest rate in the league, and that seems likely to continue in a divisional game in which they are are underdogs.
Pick: Cam Little Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (+120)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”NFL Week 13 Highest Scoring Team Prop”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Highest-Scoring Team — Bengals (+1400)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Steelers” awayslug=”pittsburgh-steelers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png” homename=”Cincinnati Bengals” homeslug=”cincinnati-bengals” date=”Sunday, Dec. 1″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
The Bengals have the fifth-highest implied team total in Week 13.
That doesn’t seem great on its face – but less than two points separate No. 1 from No. 5 this week.
They do have a tough matchup with the Steelers, a top-10 defense by DVOA. But that’s not strong enough to make me worry too much about the Bengals’ production.
The Bengals put up 27 points against a similarly tough Chargers defense, and that was the first game back for WR2 Tee Higgins. He should be all the way back to 100% in this matchup, which boosts the Bengals’ outlook.
More importantly, this is a bad price from BetMGM, who have the same odds for teams like Houston and Minnesota to lead the slate, despite lower implied totals from those teams.
The Bengals aren’t the likeliest team to lead the slate, but their odds are better than 14-to-1.
Picks: Highest-Scoring Team — Bengals (+1400)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227369″ date=”20241201″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Cardinals vs Vikings Overtime Prop”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1500)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Cardinals” awayslug=”arizona-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” homename=”Minnesota Vikings” homeslug=”minnesota-vikings” date=”Sunday, Dec. 1″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
My OT model has +1330 as fair value on extra football in Minnesota, with an upper confidence interval on the fair value of +1455, meaning we can be confident 15-to-1 is solid value to at least the higher number, and likely further.
The biggest issue preventing this game from even shorter odds in my model is the Cardinals‘ willingness to go for two-point conversions that put the game off of typical OT number, like they (correctly) did in Week 5 when, down 10, they scored a touchdown and went for two instead of taking the extra point that would have left them down three.
That said, it’s the only time that has happened this year for either team.
The two other times Arizona went for two was to get the score either tied or back to a field-goal difference, which helps OT chances.
Picks: Will There Be Overtime — Yes (+1500
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227371″ date=”20241201″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Saquon Barkley Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Player to Not Score a Touchdown — Saquon Barkley (+140)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” awayname=”Philadelphia Eagles” awayslug=”philadelphia-eagles” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” homename=”Baltimore Ravens” homeslug=”baltimore-ravens” date=”Sunday, Dec. 1″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
Given the run Barkley is on, this might seem like a crazy pick. With that said, there’s a lot to like about it.
First, the Eagles are slight underdogs against the Ravens.
Barkley didn’t score a touchdown in either of the Eagles’ losses this season. We could debate which way that causation flows, but either way, the Eagles are less likely to win this game than most of their recent contests.
More importantly, the Ravens face the highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) by a wide margin. Barkley has just two receiving touchdowns on the season, so that also limits his opportunity.
On top of that, he still is losing goal-line work to Jalen Hurts, whose “tush-push” touchdowns limit chances for Barkley.
While it feels like Barkley has scored nearly every week this season, he’s found paydirt in just six of 11 contests, a roughly 55% rate.
That would make the true line here about +120 in a typical matchup – and the Ravens are about as extreme of a matchup as possible in terms of limiting rushing scores.
This won’t be a fun pick to sweat, but I’ll enjoy cashing the ticket if it hits.
Picks: Saquon Barkley to Not Score a Touchdown (+140)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227377″ date=”20241201″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Eagles vs Ravens Overtime Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1300)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” awayname=”Philadelphia Eagles” awayslug=”philadelphia-eagles” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” homename=”Baltimore Ravens” homeslug=”baltimore-ravens” date=”Sunday, Dec. 1″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
Philadelphia and Baltimore have the best chance at overtime this week.
These two teams can move the ball and have solid kickers on extra points (say what you will about Justin Tucker’s field goals, but he’s 41-for-42 on XPs).
That gives this game a great chance of staying on key differences like three and seven, and even 10, 11 or 14. This is a spot where two high-powered offenses can come from multiple scores down to force OT.
I have fair value on this at +1115, with an upper confidence interval of +1210.
Picks: Will There Be Overtime? Yes (+1300)
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