Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with six NFL predictions for Week 12.
The data-driven NFL picks for Week 12 include props for Anthony Richardson and Josh Jacobs, plus a number of long-shot prop bets.
NFL Predictions Week 12
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Detroit Lions” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” secondfullname=”Indianapolis Colts” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Vikings” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” secondfullname=”Chicago Bears” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Vikings” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” secondfullname=”Chicago Bears” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Kansas City Chiefs” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” secondfullname=”Carolina Panthers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Denver Broncos” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” secondfullname=”Las Vegas Raiders” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/oak.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”San Francisco 49ers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” secondfullname=”Green Bay Packers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/gb.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:25 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Anthony Richardson Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Anthony Richardson Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” awayname=”Detroit Lions” awayslug=”detroit-lions” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” homename=”Indianapolis Colts” homeslug=”indianapolis-colts” date=”Sunday, Nov. 24″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
It’s commonly accepted that rushing quarterbacks have more success on the ground against man defense. With the defenders’ backs turned away from the QB as they pursue their coverage, there’s nobody watching if /when the quarterback breaks the pocket and takes off.
The team that plays man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL this season? The Detroit Lions.
Detroit struggled against rushing quarterbacks last season, allowing the third-most rushing yards against the position. That hasn’t been the case this year – but it also hasn’t faced any true dual-threat QB yet.
That changes on Sunday, with Anthony Richardson back under center for the Colts.
Indianapolis called plenty of designed runs last week for Richardson, but he’ll also take off on passing plays if the opportunity is there.
I suspect it will be, and Richardson has the ability to clear this line on a single run.
I also like his anytime touchdown prop (+185 at FanDuel) as an alternative since the Colts called two designed red-zone runs for Richardson last week in his return to starting duty.
Picks: Anthony Richardson Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115; BetMGM); Anytime Touchdown (+185; FanDuel)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227512″ date=”20241124″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Vikings vs Bears Kicker Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Cairo Santos Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (-120)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” awayname=”Minnesota Vikings” awayslug=”minnesota-vikings” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png” homename=”Chicago Bears” homeslug=”chicago-bears” date=”Sunday, Nov. 24″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
Color me skeptical that a kicker who has attempted just two extra points over the last four games suddenly will attempt two against arguably the best defense in the NFL.
Over those four games, the Bears faced teams who allow an early down success rate (EDSR) averaging 45.1% (garbage time removed). Minnesota, over that same span, has allowed a 33.5% EDSR.
That should put the Bears in even more third-and-long situations than they already faced in those games, which doesn’t project well for scoring touchdowns.
And even if Chicago does score two TDs, we could see a situation like last week where the Bears need to (or choose to) go for two – a choice they make at the third-highest rate in the league.
Pick: Cairo Santos Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (-120; BetMGM)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Lowest-Scoring Team Prop”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Lowest-Scoring Team on Sunday — Bears (+1000)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” awayname=”Minnesota Vikings” awayslug=”minnesota-vikings” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png” homename=”Chicago Bears” homeslug=”chicago-bears” date=”Sunday, Nov. 24″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen:
While we’re at it with the kicker under, let’s take the Bears to be the lowest scoring team on Sunday at 10-1.
Since the bye, Chicago has averaged 11.5 points per game on just 13.7 expected points per game. And that was against four defenses that rank 12th or worse in defensive DVOA (average a rank of 20.3). Now, the Bears face the team that ranks first defensively.
The Bears check a ton of futility boxes:
- Worst weighted EDSR of the week
- Bottom-three QB coverage matchup (per Fantasy Points data)
- Negative Luck Team Total
This is also a bit of a personal hedge, as I’m on the Chiefs to cover against Carolina. If the Panthers put up points, hurting my Chiefs bet, that only helps this Bears bet. But I like the price we’re getting here even independent of that bet.
Pick: Lowest-Scoring Team on Sunday — Bears (+1000)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227508″ date=”20241124″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Highest-Scoring Team Prop”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Highest-Scoring Team on Sunday — Chiefs (+750)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” awayname=”Kansas City Chiefs” awayslug=”kansas-city-chiefs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” homename=”Carolina Panthers” homeslug=”carolina-panthers” date=”Sunday, Nov. 24″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
This spot for the Chiefs (9-1) reminds me of the Lions last week. Super Bowl contender in a projected blowout, one week after a down game offensively.
The Chiefs have a near-spotless record mostly because of their defense, which has allowed them to win even when their offense has sputtered.
That didn’t work against the Bills last week, and should serve as a reminder to Kansas City that it needs to put up points to compete with the league’s best teams.
Now the Chiefs have the perfect get-right spot against the Panthers, who rank 31st in overall defense by DVOA and last in points allowed.
It would make sense for the Chiefs to get the offense rolling here even with a big lead, making them my favorite choice for the market despite a few teams coming in with slightly higher implied totals.
Pick: Highest-Scoring Team on Sunday — Chiefs (+750)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227507″ date=”20241124″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Broncos vs Raiders Anytime Touchdown Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Audric Estime Anytime TD (+320); Jaleel McLaughlin Anytime TD (+650)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” awayname=”Denver Broncos” awayslug=”denver-broncos” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/oak.png” homename=”Las Vegas Raiders” homeslug=”las-vegas-raiders” date=”Sunday, Nov. 24″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Nick Giffen
This is a bet on one of Denver’s two backup RBs to score a touchdown against Las Vegas.
Broncos head coach Sean Payton did little to clarify how these two backs, along with presumed starter Javonte Williams, will fare on a week-to-week basis from a usage perspective.
The best we can do right now is lean on recent history and presume Estime is the RB2 and McLaughlin the RB3, which makes their anytime touchdown prices at FanDuel ordered correctly.
That said, we’re showing value on both to score, and if Denver ends up covering a 6-point spread, there’s a good chance one of the two finds the end zone.
A half-unit on Estime and a quarter-unit on McLaughlin is a nice way to split the two bets, so you’d make over one unit profit if just one hits.
Picks: Audric Estime Anytime TD (+320); Jaleel McLaughlin Anytime TD (+650)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227514″ date=”20241124″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Josh Jacobs Player Props”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Josh Jacobs Rushing Ladder (+105 to +215)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” awayname=”San Francisco 49ers” awayslug=”san-francisco-49ers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/gb.png” homename=”Green Bay Packers” homeslug=”green-bay-packers” date=”Sunday, Nov. 24″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Billy Ward
The 49ers played it close to the vest this week, but announced on Friday that quarterback Brock Purdy would miss this Week 12 contest against the Packers.
Because of that, Green Bay is now a -5.5 favorite after originally opening as an underdog.
Thinking downstream of what that means for this game, we’d logically expect Green Bay to shift to a more run-heavy approach. The Packers already rank 31st in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the season, so that’s nothing new.
Jacobs is averaging around 17.5 carries per game as is, but he should skew to the higher end of his typical workload this time around.
I also have this as an above-average matchup for the Packers’ run blocking, which should help his efficiency. That gives us a path to both increased volume and efficiency, making this an obvious spot to target Jacobs.
Picks:
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80+ yards +105 (.5u)
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90+ yards +155 (.25u)
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100+ yards +215 (.25u)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227515″ date=”20241124″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
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