NFL Predictions Week 10: Expert Data-Driven Picks for Sunday

Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team crunched the numbers and came up with five NFL predictions for Week 10.

The data-driven NFL picks for Week 10 include an anytime touchdown scorer prediction and numerous other enticing props.

NFL Predictions Week 10

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”New Orleans Saints” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Falcons Highest Scoring Team (+1300)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”New Orleans Saints” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Taysom Hill Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”New England Patriots” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” secondfullname=”Chicago Bears” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png”][/teammatchup]	1 p.m.	Cairo Santos Under 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Tennessee Titans” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Chargers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup]	2:05 p.m.	Chigoziem Okonkwo Anytime TD (+750), 2 TDs (+12500)
[teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Tennessee Titans” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Chargers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup]	2:05 p.m.	Justin Herbert Passing Yards Ladder
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Falcons vs Saints Highest Scoring Team Bet”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Falcons Highest Scoring Team (+1300)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Falcons” awayslug=”atlanta-falcons” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png” homename=”New Orleans Saints” homeslug=”new-orleans-saints” date=”Sunday, Nov. 10″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

I originally planned on taking the Saints vs. Falcons contest as the highest-scoring game on Sunday, but the odds weren’t enough to justify the pick. However, the Falcons as the highest scoring team is all the way up at +1300 on FanDuel, making it a much juicier option.

After three strong performances to start the season, the Saints’ defense has been one of the league’s worst units over the past few weeks. They gave up 51 to the division-rival Bucs, 33 to the Broncos and even allowed Bryce Young and the Panthers to score 23.

Then, they traded away their top cornerback. Additionally, their second-best corner is injured for an indoor game against the Falcons’ talented passing attack.

This is still a bet on the Saints putting up points, since Atlanta won’t attack through the air if the game is out of hand. However, it’s a solid matchup on the ground for the Saints, so Alvin Kamara should get his and keep things close.

That’s why I prefer this game to the 49ers vs. Bucs, which has the higher total. Tampa Bay could fall apart against a tough defense and let the 49ers take their foot off the gas.

I am a bit worried about Sunday Night Football between the Lions and Texans, but if the Falcons are the top team through the afternoon window we can hedge this bet when the time comes.

Pick: Falcons Highest Scoring Team (+1300)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”New Orleans Saints” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Atlanta Falcons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”New Orleans Saints” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New England Patriots” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” secondfullname=”Chicago Bears” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Tennessee Titans” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Chargers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Tennessee Titans” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Chargers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Falcons vs Saints Rush Attempts Bet”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Taysom Hill Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-120)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Falcons” awayslug=”atlanta-falcons” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png” homename=”New Orleans Saints” homeslug=”new-orleans-saints” date=”Sunday, Nov. 10″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

This is just a silly line from BetMGM as Hill has yet to top this mark in any game this season.

While I expect Hill to have a relatively large role, he’ll also be used as both a passer and receiver, while New Orleans will split carries between Alvin Kamara and Jordan Mims.

While I’m optimistic about the rushing efficiency of New Orleans’ offense, the game flow should force the Saints to the air relatively frequently.

We have Hill projected for a median of 4.6 rushing attempts, making this a wide edge.

Pick: Taysom Hill Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-120)

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Patriots vs Bears Field Goals Made Bet”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Cairo Santos Under 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” awayname=”New England Patriots” awayslug=”new-england-patriots” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/chi.png” homename=”Chicago Bears” homeslug=”chicago-bears” date=”Sunday, Nov. 10″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

Santos has played four home games in the Windy City this season. He attempted exactly one field goal in three of them and three against the Titans in Week 1.

This should be a game where Santos has a good shot at attempting – at most – just one field goal. If we look at the three games where he only attempted one, they came under similar circumstances as this Sunday’s game.

All three of his one-attempt games came with wind speeds at or above 15 mph, and all three came against poor defenses. Jacksonville, Carolina and the Los Angeles Rams all rank 24th or worse in defensive DVOA, which left the Bears pouring in touchdowns instead of attempting field goals.

In Santos’ multi-field goal home game, wind speeds were under 10 mph and the Bears faced the Tennessee Titans, who rank ninth in defensive DVOA. That turned a few potential touchdown drives into field goals.

Well, New England ranks 30th in defensive DVOA and we’re set for another windy day. I’ll back the under.

Pick: Cairo Santos Under 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105)

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nick Giffen’s Titans vs Chargers Anytime TD Bet”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Chigoziem Okonkwo Anytime TD (+750), 2 TDs (+12500)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” awayname=”Tennessee Titans” awayslug=”tennessee-titans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png” homename=”Los Angeles Chargers” homeslug=”los-angeles-chargers” date=”Sunday, Nov. 10″ time=”2:05 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Nick Giffen

Okonkwo is coming off his highest snap-rate game of the season, and while there’s probably some regression potential as Tyler Boyd is good to go after leaving last week’s game with a shoulder injury, Oknokwo still posted his second-highest snap rate of the season the week prior, which was the first game without DeAndre Hopkins.

Okonkwo has massive man/zone splits, with just under a 5% target per route against man, but closer to a 19.5% target per route run against zone coverage. The Chargers play the highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL.

Having Will Levis back should also help. Levis has been more aggressive than Mason Rudolph, which should help the entire team’s upside.

Chargers middle linebacker Denzel Perryman is questionable, but even if he plays he could be bothered by his toe injury, which could only help.

Tennessee also has the highest Luck Team Total of Week 10, so don’t be shocked if the Titans go over their team total. An Okonkwo TD (or two) would certainly correlate with that.

Pick: Chigoziem Okonkwo Anytime TD (+750), 2 TDs (+12500)

[anchor name=”5″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Billy Ward’s Titans vs Chargers Passing Yard Ladder”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Justin Herbert Passing Yards Ladder” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” awayname=”Tennessee Titans” awayslug=”tennessee-titans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sd.png” homename=”Los Angeles Chargers” homeslug=”los-angeles-chargers” date=”Sunday, Nov. 10″ time=”2:05 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Billy Ward

After starting the year by playing old fashioned Jim Harbaugh smash-mouth football, the Chargers have quietly produced the second-highest PROE in the NFL since their Week 5 bye.

In that time, the only team to hold Herbert under 279 passing yards was the Broncos, who rank top 10 in DVOA against the pass. Herbert finished that contest with 237.5 passing yards – which is still higher than his 224.5 yardage line on DraftKings.

He and the Chargers draw a Titans team that’s strong against the run (5th in DVOA), but average against the pass (14th in DVOA). They’ve allowed the fewest passing yards in the league this season, but that’s largely due to their poor offense allowing teams to run out the clock out.

The Chargers have shown a willingness to throw the ball regardless of game script as of late, and have a pair of talented young wide receivers in Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnson. That bodes well for Herbert’s chances of picking up a big yardage total.

NFL Predictions Week 10: Expert Data-Driven Picks for Sunday