Examining NFL betting predictions for Week 1 is different from every other week of the regular season.
Of course you have the excitement that professional football is returning, but from an NFL betting perspective, Week 1 odds have been available since May at most sportsbooks.
Obviously this won’t be the case again going forward once the season is officially underway.
This affects NFL Week 1 predictions as well because odds have so much time to move and adjust based on a multitude of factors, like injuries, suspensions, betting action, etc.
Long story, short: It’s hard to peg exactly what is behind many NFL Week 1 line moves over the course of four months.
With this in mind, accurate NFL predictions, which are always extremely valuable, can be even more useful in Week 1 as they already take into account all of the player news from the summer to power rate each team, then compare them to live odds for the top available edges.
And based on the Action Network’s NFL betting model predictions, three matchups come to the forefront as the biggest Week 1 edges.
NFL Predictions for Week 1
*NFL odds as of Sunday morning
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction
1 p.m. ET | CBS
When we think of consistently underrated teams, the New England Patriots don’t come to mind, but that’s exactly the case for their Week 1 matchup against the Miami Dolphins.
The Action Network’s NFL PRO Projections set Miami as a 2.5-point favorite against New England, but the ability to snag the Pats off the key number of 3 is an easy way to lock in a 2.1% edge on Sunday afternoon.
Betting Model Prediction: Patriots +3.5
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Jaguars vs. Commanders Prediction
1 p.m. ET | FOX
While it’s a bit surprising to see the market undervaluing the Patriots, the same cannot be said about the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has managed just four total wins over the past two seasons, but our model suggests the Jags are a savvy bet against the Commanders today.
We project this Jaguars vs. Commanders line at Jacksonville +0.9, so there is an edge — a massive 5% edge to be exact — grabbing this at +3.
Betting Model Prediction: Jaguars +3
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Chiefs vs. Cardinals Prediction
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Chiefs vs. Cardinals is not only one of Sunday afternoon’s most highly-anticipated games, but it’s also offering one of the biggest edges of today’s NFL Week 1 slate.
While Arizona is available at +6 across the market, our projection of +4.1 provides a 3.8% edge for Cardinals bettors.
Betting Model Prediction: Cardinals +6
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