We close NFL Week 11 with Monday Night Football. It’s a potentially lopsided battle of Texas’ two teams with the Texans favored by 7.5 points over the Cowboys.
I have a pick on a spread and player prop for this game. Let’s get right into it.
Dr. Nick’s Monday Night Football Picks
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There is a huge difference in early down success rate between these teams. Houston is at +7.4% over the last six weeks, while Dallas is -5.6% in that same span.
Also, the Texans have scored two touchdowns on their opening drives this season and Dallas has scored zero.
Also, the market is saying that Cooper Rush is only three or four points worse than Dak Prescott? I’m skeptical it’s that small of a difference. Sean Koerner’s preseason model had the difference closer to five or six points.
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Every touchdown pass that Rush has ever thrown to CeeDee Lamb has been in the second half. That works especially well for this matchup.
The Texans turn into absolute pumpkins in the second half both offensively and defensively. They score much less and allow more points in the second half compared to the first, which could lead to more time of possession for the Cowboys.
Is it a conditioning issue? Well, if so, the Cowboys push the pace in the second half when trailing, averaging 21.3 seconds per play in that situation, which is the second-fastest pace in the NFL. The matchup could hurt the Texans and their second-half woes than usual.
Dallas will likely have to abandon the run at some point if it’s trailing, which I’m clearly expecting to be the case with my first bet. In a 242-play sample size, the Cowboys throw the ball 74% of the time when trailing in the second half. All of this is good news for Lamb.
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