Bettors are confident that they know which teams will cover the spread during Week 11.
Ten of the 13 NFL games feature one team receiving at least 60% of spread tickets and six teams are receiving lopsided betting action – at least 70% of spread bets.
Which of these popular picks are being overvalued by casual bettors?
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 11.
Note: As of Tuesday afternoon, Ravens-Bengals is currently off the board due to Joe Flacco’s injury.
Overrated Week 11 Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
- NFL Power Rating spread: -3.6
- Current Spread: -6
- Value on: Jaguars
- Time: Nov. 18, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Pittsburgh has won and covered five consecutive games. On average, the Steelers (6-3 against the spread) are covering by 5.2 points per game.
Since 2003, it has been profitable to fade teams that are covering the spread by five or more points after the first month of the season: 369-296-18 (56%) ATS, according to Bet Labs.
Houston Texans at Washington Redskins
- NFL Power Rating spread: -1.3
- Current Spread: -3
- Value on: Redskins
- Time: Nov. 18, 1 p.m. ET (CBS
The Texans (six wins in a row) are tied for the second-longest active winning streak in the NFL, trailing the Saints’ eight straight wins.
Not only is Houston playing well but the team is also coming off a bye. Bye weeks should give teams extra time to get healthy, practice and prepare for future opponents.
Since 2003, it has been profitable to bet teams coming off a bye: 258-225-15 (53.4%) ATS per Bet Labs. However, the edge no longer exists.
From 2003 to 2008, teams playing after a bye week were 108-81-3 (57%) ATS, but since 2009 teams are only 150-144-12 (51%) ATS following a week off.
Bettors shouldn’t expect the Texans to have an advantage because of their bye week.
Underrated Week 11 Teams
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
- NFL Power Rating spread: +7.1
- Current Spread: +9
- Value on: Eagles
- Time: Nov. 18, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Eagles are just the 12th Super Bowl champion to be listed as underdogs of seven or more points the season after winning the title since 1986. The previous 11 teams went 3-8 straight up (SU) and 8-3 ATS.
It is a small sample and while Philly hasn’t been playing its best football, it is probably unwise to discount the reigning Super Bowl champs.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams
- NFL Power Rating spread: +0.6
- Current Spread: +2.5
- Value on: Chiefs
- Time: Nov. 19, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Action Network Power Rankings make this game Rams -0.6. Our NFL simulations list LA as a 1.1-point favorite.
There is at least a 1.5- to 2-point difference between projected and actual spreads. In a game featuring two of the best teams in football, that is a significant.
