Christmas is next week and bettors are looking to make a little cash before jolly old Saint Nick comes to town by getting down on the Week 16 slate.
The public loves the big favorites. A majority of spread tickets are on each of the six teams favored by at least a touchdown.
Is the chalk a smart bet or will gamblers be left with coal in their stockings?
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number we can determine the most overrated and underrated teams in Week 16.
Here are the teams offering betting value this week, according to our power ratings.
All data as of Tuesday evening.
Week 16 Spreads That Are Off the Most
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
- NFL Power Rating spread: -6.4
- Current Spread: -4
- Value on: Bears
- Time: Dec. 23, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Bears are allowing 18.9 points per game (3rd), lead the league in turnover differential (+13) and are No. 1 in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA.
Meanwhile, the 49ers rank in the bottom half of the league in points scored (21.5 ppg), have the worst turnover margin in football (-22), and rank 27th in offensive DVOA.
The Action Network’s NFL simulations make Chicago 7.9-point favorites. Hold my beer, I got a Bears bet to place.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
- NFL Power Rating spread: -3.9
- Current Spread: -6
- Value on: Lions
- Time: Dec. 23, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Lions have nothing to play for and the Vikings are the current 6-seed in the NFC. Nearly 70% of spread tickets (see live odds) are on Minnesota after a resounding 41-17 win over Miami at home in Week 15.
Bettors shouldn’t be so quick to jump on the Vikes. Since 2003, it has been profitable to bet against teams after an easy win (21 or more points) at home: 247-194-15 (56%) against the spread (ATS) per Bet Labs.
If the opposing team has won fewer than 40% of its games, like the Lions, the record improves to 86-56-4 (61%) ATS.
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
- NFL Power Rating spread: -0.5
- Current Spread: -2.5
- Value on: Seahawks
- Time: Dec. 23, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Chiefs and Seahawks both lost last week. Since both teams fell the market shouldn’t have overreacted, right? Wrong. Seattle’s stumble against San Francisco, a four-win team, swung the lookahead line from Seahawks -1 to +2.5 at the Westgate.
Teams are never as good or bad as they looked the previous week. It is a bad idea to discount Russell Wilson & Co. after one poor performance. Plus, good teams that have won more than 70% of their games, like the Chiefs, are often overvalued on the road late in the season (Dec-Jan) going 112-142-5 (44%) ATS since 2003 per Bet Labs.
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
- NFL Power Rating spread: -2
- Current Spread: Pick’em
- Value on: Packers
- Time: Dec. 23, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
This is a sticky wicket. Aaron Rodgers has an ailing left knee and a groin injury. Green Bay has been eliminated from playoff contention. There are a million reasons why the Packers star quarterback should sit out the rest of the season.
But Rodgers said he wants to play. He is currently listed as the starter for Sunday’s game. However, massive line movement suggests the All-Pro passer won’t play.
Bottom line, if Rodgers suits up the Packers would be favored. Should the head cheese be shelved, the Jets would be 3-point favorites according to our model with DeShone Kizer taking the snaps for the Pack.
