Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 6!
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 122-69-6 (63.5%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest line to beat.
In Week 5, the lone Luck Matchup lost as the New Orleans Saints lost by 13 to Kansas City, failing to cover the 5.5-point spread. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 9-8-1 (52.8%) record ATS on the season.
Luck totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
The lone Luck Total in Week 5 was a Luck Under between Buffalo and Houston, which did stay under. That moves Luck Unders to 3-1-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain at 3-0-0. Luck Totals as a whole are 6-1-0 (85.7%) for the season.
In all, all bets meeting any side or total criteria are 15-9-1 (62%).
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 6.
NFL Week 6 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
40.6%
|
|
| 2 |
31.04%
|
|
| 3 |
29.64%
|
|
| 4 |
24.63%
|
|
| 5 |
22.84%
|
|
| 6 |
18.9%
|
|
| 7 |
8.33%
|
|
| 8 |
8.28%
|
|
| 9 |
7.65%
|
|
| 10 |
6.68%
|
|
| 11 |
5.89%
|
|
| 12 |
5.49%
|
|
| 13 |
4.11%
|
|
| 14 |
3.26%
|
|
| 15 |
-1.14%
|
|
| 16 |
-1.91%
|
|
| 17 |
-2.24%
|
|
| 18 |
-3.04%
|
|
| 19 |
-3.2%
|
|
| 20 |
-4.49%
|
|
| 21 |
-7.08%
|
|
| 22 |
-9.56%
|
|
| 23 |
-9.83%
|
|
| 24 |
-10.95%
|
|
| 25 |
-13.44%
|
|
| 26 |
-15.49%
|
|
| 27 |
-17.14%
|
|
| 28 |
-20.53%
|
|
| 29 |
-20.75%
|
|
| 30 |
-25.6%
|
|
| 31 |
-32.45%
|
|
| 32 |
-39.45%
|
The Luckiest Teams
1. Houston Texans
The Texans remain atop the Luck Rankings after a three-point win over the Buffalo Bills. Our Expected Score had this as an 18-15 game in Houston’s, so there was really no luck involved.
That said, with last week’s second-place team (Kansas City) thoroughly manhandling the Saints and last week’s third-place team ending this week as an unlucky loser, Houston safely remains on top despite a neutral week.
2. Minnesota Vikings
It was only a matter of time before the Vikings joined the top three after a perfect 5-0 start to the season. That rings especially true after a 23-17 victory over the Jets in London. That win was the second-luckiest result of the week in no small part thanks to the game-changing 63-yard interception return for a touchdown by Andrew Van Ginkel when the Jets were in Minnesota territory.
Aaron Rodgers had just his sixth career three-interception game, which certainly comes in well below expectation.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 3-2 after a one-score overtime win over the Buccaneers. These kinds of wins are inherently lucky since overtime games tend to be close to a coin flip on average, so winning is nearly a 50% luck result by default.
In this case, based off the underlying data, this was actually a 34-28 win for Tampa Bay according to Expected Score. The Buccaneers had the better success rate on offense, and that gap grew further when adding in special teams and penalties. Atlanta was able to overcome the Bucs’ success rate with more explosive plays, which are less sustainable over the long haul.
In regulation, Tampa Bay outgained Atlanta 6.5-6.2 in yards per play. However KhaDarel Hodge’s 45-yard game winning touchdown put Atlanta over the top on the scoreboard, but not in Expected Score.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Cincinnati Bengals
In a fun little quirk of the Luck Rankings, the Bengals were the fourth-luckiest team of the week but drop into the bottom three. That’s because our weekly rankings look at Expected Score vs. Actual Score, while our overall Luck Rankings look at win/loss record vs. expected record.
So, by losing, the Bengals were still unlucky since they had a shot to win this game despite Expected Score showing that the Ravens were the slightly better team in the game. In fact, prior to the MNF blowout between Kansas City and New Orleans, Baltimore had the biggest offensive success rate advantage over its opponents in Week 5.
With that, it shouldn’t come as a surprise the Bengals were a bit lucky given Ja’Marr Chase had two touchdowns that combined for 111 yards alone. That explosiveness, while a trait that is factored in, isn’t a sustainable way to score in the long run. That’s in part what gave the Ravens a better Expected Score than the final score indicated. However, the Bengals were still somewhat unlucky to lose that game, especially being up 10 halfway through the fourth quarter.
A team as talented as Cincinnati sitting at 1-4 definitely merits a bottom-three spot in the Luck Rankings.
31. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams suffered Week 5’s single-biggest unlucky result, which drops them from 27th to 31st in the Luck Rankings. Los Angeles had a 10% better offensive success rate than the Packers and a 14% better success rate among all plays when including special teams and penalties. Yet, like Cincinnati, the Packers were able to overcome it with explosiveness.
The Rams put together several solid drives that ultimately fell short. That includes a first-and-goal situation at the Packers’ 8-yard line that ended without any points, a punt on a drive that reached the Packers’ 29, a fumble at the Packers’ 25, an interception at the Packers’ 48, a punt on a drive that reached Green Bay’s 47 and the final drive ending on downs at the Packers’ 38.
It’s almost like a baseball game where a team gets two hits per inning, ends up with 18 hits, and scores only one run with 17 left on base. The L.A. successes just came in the wrong order to put extra points on the board. If you’re rocking the pitcher like that, typically the runs will come. In this case, the Rams were unlucky for them not to.
32. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee remains at the bottom after a bye week in Week 5.
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