Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 5!
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 122-68-6 (63.8%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest line to beat.
In Week 4, the six Luck Matchups went 5-0-1 ATS giving the unlucky team in luck-based matchups a 9-7-1 (55.9%) start ATS on the season.
Luck totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
There were no Luck Totals in Week 3, but in Week 4 we had three Luck Overs and three Luck Unders. In all, Luck Overs went 3-0-0 to the over and Luck Unders went 2-1-0 to the under, putting all Luck Totals at 5-1-0 (83.3%) for the season.
In all, bets meeting any side or total criteria are 14-8-1 (63%).
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 5.
NFL Week 5 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
38.63%
|
|
| 2 |
36.84%
|
|
| 3 |
26%
|
|
| 4 |
25.9%
|
|
| 5 |
20.38%
|
|
| 6 |
19.19%
|
|
| 7 |
17.91%
|
|
| 8 |
13.28%
|
|
| 9 |
10.07%
|
|
| 10 |
8.33%
|
|
| 11 |
5.89%
|
|
| 12 |
4.3%
|
|
| 13 |
4.29%
|
|
| 14 |
2.24%
|
|
| 15 |
1.17%
|
|
| 16 |
-0.79%
|
|
| 17 |
-1.22%
|
|
| 18 |
-1.29%
|
|
| 19 |
-3.04%
|
|
| 20 |
-6.07%
|
|
| 21 |
-8.02%
|
|
| 22 |
-8.29%
|
|
| 23 |
-9.03%
|
|
| 24 |
-10.78%
|
|
| 25 |
-10.83%
|
|
| 26 |
-13.87%
|
|
| 27 |
-16.43%
|
|
| 28 |
-21.06%
|
|
| 29 |
-29.79%
|
|
| 30 |
-29.97%
|
|
| 31 |
-35.53%
|
|
| 32 |
-39.45%
|
The Luckiest Teams
1. Houston Texans
Houston jumps to the top of the Luck Rankings after a late comeback win over Jacksonville. Jacksonville couldn’t score from a first-and-goal situation at the Houston 4-yard line that included two attempts from the 1.
Given a chance to replay those situations many times, Jacksonville is expected to come away with at least five points on average from that spot.
Our Expected Scores had the Jaguars barely pipping the Texans by a 23.7-22.7 scoreline, giving Houston a win they slightly didn’t deserve.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs fall from the top spot after getting unlucky against the Chargers. Kansas City’s 17-10 win should have been 21-7 based on our Expected Scores, making it the unlucky team in its game for the first time this season.
The Chiefs still have been one of the luckier teams this season, although their Luck% has fallen from a peak of nearly 57% to 49.9% last week. It’s now down to 36.9%.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs deserved to beat the Eagles and the 33-16 score was nearly spot on with our Expected Score of 34.2-17.9, making Week 4 a neutral week for Tampa Bay.
So, why did they rejoin the top three? The two teams ahead of the Buccaneers — the Seahawks and Steelers — had unlucky losses while the teams directly behind them had relatively neutral wins.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. New Orleans Saints
Fun fact: If you use Pythagorean Expectation to calculate Pythagorean Wins but do so with our Expected Scores, the Saints have the most Expected Wins on the season. They’re just 2-2, though, after a tough loss to the division-rival Falcons.
Atlanta benefitted from a muffed-punt touchdown, a pick-six and the Saints’ inability to punch it in late in the fourth quarter after a first-and-goal situation at the 5-yard line. Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo also made four field goals from at least 42 yards out, including two from 53 and 58. That 100% rate also comes in over expectation for Atlanta.
Our Expected Scores had the Saints winning 29-14, making them the unluckiest team of Week 4.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
Another week, another loss for the Jaguars, who are the NFL’s last remaining winless team. That pays out at +2800 if you bet that before the regular season.
The Jags have an Expected Win% of 35.5%, meaning they’re a full 1.4 wins below expectation. Jacksonville has three one-score losses this season with two expected wins based on Expected Scores.
32. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee remains at the bottom despite picking up its first win of the season because its win was comfortable enough that it wasn’t really driven by luck.
The win does help close the gap between the Titans’ actual win percentage and their expected win percentage according to Expected Scores. Tennessee’s Luck% jumps from -55% to -39.5%.
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