Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 4!
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 117-68-5 (62.9%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest line to beat.
In Week 3, the seven Luck Matchups went 2-5-0 ATS giving the unlucky team in luck-based matchups a 4-7-0 (36.4%) start ATS on the season.
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 4.
NFL Week 4 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
49.82%
|
|
| 2 |
48.23%
|
|
| 3 |
34.88%
|
|
| 4 |
31.01%
|
|
| 5 |
28.01%
|
|
| 6 |
24.28%
|
|
| 7 |
18.47%
|
|
| 8 |
17.98%
|
|
| 9 |
17.75%
|
|
| 10 |
15.54%
|
|
| 11 |
12.97%
|
|
| 12 |
7.96%
|
|
| 13 |
2.3%
|
|
| 14 |
1.38%
|
|
| 15 |
0.75%
|
|
| 16 |
-0.29%
|
|
| 17 |
-4.87%
|
|
| 18 |
-7.18%
|
|
| 19 |
-7.97%
|
|
| 20 |
-9.41%
|
|
| 21 |
-10.09%
|
|
| 22 |
-12.28%
|
|
| 23 |
-13.68%
|
|
| 24 |
-14.42%
|
|
| 25 |
-16.8%
|
|
| 26 |
-18.25%
|
|
| 27 |
-21.88%
|
|
| 28 |
-21.92%
|
|
| 29 |
-33.76%
|
|
| 30 |
-35.42%
|
|
| 31 |
-46.68%
|
|
| 32 |
-55.21%
|
The Luckiest Teams
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs remain the luckiest team in the NFL after another one-score win over Atlanta.
Kansas City actually won by about the score it should have, so most of this ranking still comes from their lucky Weeks 1 and 2.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Thanks to Tampa Bay’s 26-7 loss to the Broncos, the Seahawks jumped into the top three.
The Seahawks were the luckiest team after Week 1 and jump back into the top three after a 24-3 win against Miami that our Expected Scores had closer to a 19-13 win based on the underlying data from the game. A missed field goal for Miami and a goal-to-go situation at the Seahawks’ 4-yard line that resulted in a short field goal were two key spots that came in under expectation for the Dolphins.
That was capped off by another goal-to-go spot late in the game when Miami failed to punch it into the end zone on four plays after a first and goal at Seattle’s 3-yard line.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh actually was slightly unlucky in Week 3, beating the Chargers 20-10 when our Expected Scores had this game closer to 22-7 in the Steelers‘ favor. That drops Pittsburgh’s Luck% from 55.0% to 34.9% this week but keeps them third in the Luck Rankings.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Denver Broncos
The Broncos move up two spots after manhandling the Buccaneers. Our Expected Scores made this closer to a nine-point game, so there was some luck involved for Denver. When you’re expected to win by more than a possession, though, you didn’t get all that lucky to win, hence the smaller jump for the Broncos than expected.
31. Cincinnati Bengals
The 0-3 Bengals will try to save their season in Week 4 against the Panthers after a 39-33 loss to the Commanders on Monday Night Football. The high-scoring affair was actually a bit closer than the five-point scoreline, though as our Expected Scores had Washington winning 30.3-29.3.
After getting unlucky in both Weeks 1 against New England and Week 2 against Kansas City, the Bengals have now moved into extremely unlucky territory after being a top-five luck team last year.
32. Tennessee Titans
Thanks to the Broncos win, the Titans fall to the bottom. The Titans had a higher success rate than the Packers by more than four percentage points but lost by 16.
Part of the reason for the defeat was Will Levis gifting the Packers a touchdown on a pick six. While defensive and special teams scores do occasionally happen, they’ve certainly happened against Tennessee at an unsustainable rate. Two of Levis’ three turnover-worthy plays this season, according to Pro Football Focus, have resulted in touchdowns. The Bears also blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown back in Week 1.
That rate of non-offensive scoring against Tennessee has to regress at some point.
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