NFL Power Rankings Week 14: Expert Ranks Luckiest Teams

Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 14.

These rankings are designed to help identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.

For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use these rankings to bet on the NFL.

An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”

1. A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
2. A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
3. A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.

The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 128-75-6 (62.7%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest lines to beat.

In Week 13, the two Luck Matchups that met our thresholds went 1-1 ATS, moving those teams to 15-14-1 (51.7%) ATS on the season.

Luck Totals must meet one of three criteria:

1. A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
2. A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
3. A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.

There were two Luck Totals in Week 13, both Luck Unders that stayed under, moving Luck Unders to 10-9-0 on the season while Luck Overs remain 4-0-0. Luck Totals are 14-9-0 (60.9%) this season.

All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 29-23-1 (55.7%).

Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 14.

NFL Week 14 Luck Rankings

Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.

RANK	TEAM	Luck %
1	Chiefs	24.72%
2	Steelers	19.42%
3	Chargers	19.17%
4	Packers	18.06%
5	Bills	16.28%
6	Eagles	14.62%
7	Colts	11.57%
8	Seahawks	11.57%
9	Lions	11.24%
10	Vikings	9.03%
11	Cowboys	6.21%
12	Panthers	3.20%
13	Cardinals	1.86%
14	Falcons	1.47%
15	Ravens	0.37%
16	Texans	0.27%
17	Broncos	-2.31%
18	Buccaneers	-2.54%
19	Commanders	-4.29%
20	Rams	-4.64%
21	Bears	-5.32%
22	Titans	-7.37%
23	49ers	-8.84%
24	Patriots	-9.57%
25	Dolphins	-10.81%
26	Saints	-12.64%
27	Jaguars	-13.51%
28	Browns	-15.08%
29	Bengals	-15.77%
30	Raiders	-17.46%
31	Jets	-19.82%
32	Giants	-27.92%

The Luckiest Teams

1. Kansas City Chiefs

They did it again.

Kansas City pulled off another one-score victory in a game our Expected Score had them losing 21.9 to 20.3. The Chiefs had an abysmal 34.4% in-possession success rate compared to 42.5% for the Raiders.

That moves Kansas City’s Luck% up nearly three full percentage points to a shade under 25%.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh jumps to second in the Luck Rankings after winning a game our Expected Score had as pretty much a coinflip.

The Steelers were better at moving the ball, but the Bengals won the field-possession battle to negate the Steelers’ offensive advantage.

However, Cincy ended up with two turnovers on drives that got inside the Steelers’ 35-yard line. The Bengals were expected to come away with close to six points on average, which was ultimately the difference in the final score.

3. Los Angeles Chargers

A new team enters the top three as the Chargers picked up the luckiest win of Week 13.

The Chargers were thoroughly outplayed by the Falcons, but were bailed out by four Kirk Cousins interceptions (all in Chargers territory), including one that went for a pick-six. Younghoe Koo also missed field goal. The Falcons should have won this game by multiple scores.

Instead, the Chargers move to 8-4 on the season after one of the luckiest wins of the year.

The Unluckiest Teams

30. Las Vegas Raiders

31. New York Jets

32. New York Giants

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