Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 13.
These rankings are designed to help identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use these rankings to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 127-74-6 (62.8%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest lines to beat.
In Week 12, the two Luck Matchups that met our thresholds went 1-1 ATS, moving those teams to 14-13-1 (51.8%) ATS on the season.
Luck Totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
There was one Luck Total in Week 12, a Luck Under that went over, so Luck Unders move to 8-9-0 on the season while Luck Overs are 4-0-0. Luck Totals are 12-9-0 (57.1%) this season.
All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 26-22-1 (54.1%).
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 13.
NFL Week 13 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
21.99%
|
|
| 2 |
17.91%
|
|
| 3 |
17.06%
|
|
| 4 |
16.55%
|
|
| 5 |
13.34%
|
|
| 6 |
11.72%
|
|
| 7 |
10.99%
|
|
| 8 |
10.83%
|
|
| 9 |
7.27%
|
|
| 10 |
6.97%
|
|
| 11 |
6.86%
|
|
| 12 |
6.13%
|
|
| 13 |
5.81%
|
|
| 14 |
3.38%
|
|
| 15 |
1.60%
|
|
| 16 |
-2.29%
|
|
| 17 |
-2.42%
|
|
| 18 |
-4.85%
|
|
| 19 |
-6.11%
|
|
| 20 |
-6.17%
|
|
| 21 |
-6.74%
|
|
| 22 |
-6.82%
|
|
| 23 |
-8.71%
|
|
| 24 |
-10.28%
|
|
| 25 |
-11.19%
|
|
| 26 |
-11.69%
|
|
| 27 |
-11.81%
|
|
| 28 |
-11.99%
|
|
| 29 |
-12.65%
|
|
| 30 |
-13.98%
|
|
| 31 |
-15.81%
|
|
| 32 |
-25.50%
|
The Luckiest Teams
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 2. Green Bay Packers
Nos. 1 and 2 flip yet again as the Chiefs retake the top spot from the Packers after both teams won in Week 12.
The Chiefs’ win was a much more precarious one, as they were tied with the Panthers 27-27 until the last drive.
Meanwhile, Green Bay handled a Brock Purdy-less 49ers team comfortably, which pushed the Packers’ Luck% down from 22.8% to 17.9%.
Green Bay is now less than a percentage point ahead of the new No. 3 team.
3. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen’s Bills join the top three after their bye week in which the then-Nos. 3 and 4 teams both suffered defeats.
The Bills are coming off an incredible string of seven straight games in which they outscored their Expected Score. It should be noted, expected score adjusts for the quality of play, so it’s not a “Josh Allen should outperform expectations” because Expected Scores adjust for this.
Looking back at 2023 and 2022, the Bills scored 1,005 points compared to a 1,009.9 expectation over 38 games. That’s 0.129 points per game less than expected.
So some scoring regression is likely to come for Buffalo. It’s just a matter of when.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have dropped to the bottom three for the first time this season after a 29-19 defeat to the Broncos that graded out more like a 27-26 loss by Expected Score.
The Raiders actually outperformed the Broncos by in-possession success rate. That success, though, didn’t translate to as many points as the Broncos put up. The Raiders had to settle for three red-zone field goals and then couldn’t score late from the Broncos’ 1-yard line.
31. New York Jets
The Jets remain in the bottom three after their bye week.
32. New York Giants
The Giants got trampled by Tampa Bay, and that defeat was bad enough to actually improve their Luck% from -28.6% to -25.5%.
However, that’s still 10% behind their AFC counterparts, keeping the Giants solidly as the unluckiest team in the NFL.
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