Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 10.
These rankings are designed to help identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use these rankings to bet on the NFL.
An NFL game must qualify for one of the following three criteria to be considered a “Luck Game.”
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings.
- A Luck% difference of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
The unlucky team in matchups that fit one of those criteria is 125-72-6 (63.1%) against the spread (ATS) in the regular season other than the last week of the season when using closing lines — the hardest lines to beat.
In Week 9, unlucky teams in Luck Matchups that met our thresholds went 1-1 ATS, moving those teams to 12-11-1 (52.1%) ATS on the season.
Luck Totals must meet one of three criteria:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
The lone Luck Totals in Week 9 was a Luck Under that went over. That moves Luck Unders to 6-7-0 on the season, while Luck Overs are 4-0-0. As a whole, Luck Totals are 10-7-0 (58.8%) this season.
All luck-based bets meeting any side or total criteria are 22-18-1 (54.9%).
Here’s how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 10.
NFL Week 10 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
29.80%
|
|
| 2 |
22.28%
|
|
| 3 |
21.65%
|
|
| 4 |
15.53%
|
|
| 5 |
15.44%
|
|
| 6 |
14.87%
|
|
| 7 |
11.61%
|
|
| 8 |
10.83%
|
|
| 9 |
9.99%
|
|
| 10 |
9.29%
|
|
| 11 |
8.77%
|
|
| 12 |
5.44%
|
|
| 13 |
5.16%
|
|
| 14 |
1.79%
|
|
| 15 |
-1.48%
|
|
| 16 |
-1.48%
|
|
| 17 |
-2.11%
|
|
| 18 |
-2.49%
|
|
| 19 |
-2.67%
|
|
| 20 |
-4.50%
|
|
| 21 |
-4.97%
|
|
| 22 |
-5.24%
|
|
| 23 |
-9.01%
|
|
| 24 |
-9.77%
|
|
| 25 |
-12.16%
|
|
| 26 |
-14.14%
|
|
| 27 |
-16.47%
|
|
| 28 |
-16.94%
|
|
| 29 |
-19.72%
|
|
| 30 |
-20.63%
|
|
| 31 |
-22.83%
|
|
| 32 |
-23.35%
|
The Luckiest Teams
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s top team lost while the second-ranked Chiefs won in overtime, allowing the Chiefs to retake the top spot.
That said, they should have won by about 8.5 points by Expected Score, so it was a slightly unlucky win, dropping their Luck% from 30.9% to 29.8%. Of course, that’s still a smaller drop than the …
2. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay were unlucky losers, winning the Expected Score battle 22-18.6 over Detroit. That knocked the Packers Luck% down by nearly 10 percentage points, but they had a large enough gap last week over third place (12.5%) that despite this unlucky result, they’re still in second place for the season-long metric.
The Packers outgained Detroit by 150 yards and had nearly two yards per play more, but came up empty handed on two red zone drives and settled for a short field goal on a third. Jordan Love also threw a pick six and Brandon McManus missed a field goal on another non-red zone drive. The Packers’ Expected Score win certainly seems justified given all that.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta churned out a 27-21 win over Dallas that essentially met expectation.
With last week’s fourth-place team in the Luck Rankings, Houston, winding up as an unlucky loser and tumbling to 12th, a gap opened for teams behind the Falcons, who are holding the third-place spot for another week.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. New York Giants
There’s been a change in the bottom three, as the New York Giants enter the picture for the first time this season.
While their loss came in at right about expectation, just the fact that they dropped another one-score game while two teams behind them (New York Jets and Tennessee Titans) were one-score winners was enough for the Giants to tumble into the bottom three.
31. Miami Dolphins
Similar to the Giants, the Dolphins were losers in a game that ended with a final score in line with the expected scores. However, that means Miami lost what was essentially a coin-flip game as it took a 61-yard Tyler Bass field goal to tragically (for the Dolphins, and some overtime bettors out there) give Buffalo a regulation win.
Losing what amounts to a coin flip is a half-win below expectation, and that’s exactly what we saw as Miami dropped from 1.36 wins below expectation to 1.83 wins below expectation.
32. New Orleans Saints
Dennis Allen, despite having Derek Carr back, led the Saints to one last embarrassing defeat as the NFL’s worst team, Carolina, beat them 23-22.
The Panthers are so bad that they are in the top half of our luck rankings as a 2-7 team.
That loss caused New Orleans to can Allen as head coach. Additionally, the Saints dealt away four-time Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore to the Washington Commanders prior to the trade deadline.