My regular season player prop picks in my weekly weekend piece went 39-17 (69.6%) after a 2-1 week in Week 17. I am personally not a fan of betting much in Week 18 with all the uncertainty, but I’m back for the playoffs.
I will be updating this post as I find more picks, but after hitting on Rashod Bateman on Saturday night, let’s keep it rolling on Sunday with Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Daniels.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Prop Picks
- WR Rashod Bateman under 3.5 receptions (-140 at FanDuel)
- WR Dontayvion Wicks over 4.5 first quarter receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
- QB Jayden Daniels over 0.5 INTs (+100 at Caesars)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Dontayvion Wicks Over 4.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards (-110)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/gb.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/green-bay-packers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Packers are far more likely to start the game with the ball. Philadelphia exclusively defers when it wins the coin toss under Nick Sirianni, while Green Bay has chosen to receive nearly half the time over the last two seasons.
With Christian Watson out, Dontayvion Wicks should play more than 70% of the snaps and has the highest target per route run rate on the team, especially against the coverages Philly defensive coordinator Vic Fangio likes to run the most (Covers 4, 6, and 3).
Dontayvion Wicks’ target share also spikes in games Watson misses more than in games Romeo Doubs misses, with Wicks targeted seven times per game in games Watson either missed or barely played, compared to 5.8 times per game in games Doubs missed.
The line is a low bar for someone with the second-longest aDOT on the Packers. I’d play this to 5.5 (-115).
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jayden Daniels Over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/was.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/washington-commanders” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/caesars-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Jayden Daniels has had a fantastic rookie season, throwing for more than 3,500 yards with 25 passing touchdowns to just nine interceptions.
However, this isn’t a great matchup for Daniels in the playoffs. The coverage he’s struggled the most with on his TD/INT ratio is Cover 3, having thrown just one touchdown to four INTs. That means 44.4% of his interceptions this year have come against a single coverage scheme.
I expect Tampa Bay to use Cover 3 a ton for two reasons.
First, the Buccaneers already used it at a league-high rate of 51% in the second half of the season. Second, this is a spot for them to potentially increase its use given Daniels struggles and also to help keep the rookie QB in check in the run game. Keeping an extra man in the box and using a zone scheme could help limit Daniels’ scramble potential, holding him to either fewer attempts or at least more short-yardage plays.
The Commanders are also a three-point underdog, which may put them in a spot to throw more. In the Commanders‘ five regular-season losses, Daniels averaged 32.6 pass attempts and in their one-possession wins he averaged 31.1 pass attempts. However, in their multi-posession wins Daniels threw just 28.3 times in the three wins he played in full.
These two teams faced off in Week 1 and Tampa Bay used just Cover 3 just 21% of the time. Daniels torched them for 88 rushing yards on 16 carries in his NFL debut, while throwing just 24 times. That’s likely to change given the Buccaneers shift toward a Cover 3-heavy defense.
I’m projecting Daniels to throw an interception closer to 55% of the time. It’s not a huge edge, but I have him favored here in a spot where we’re getting even money.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Rashod Bateman Under 3.5 Reception (-140)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/baltimore-ravens” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Rashod Bateman steps up into the de-facto WR1 role with Ravens top wideout Zay Flowers out, but I’m not sure that’s going to help his numbers a ton. Pittsburgh has been very stingy against teams’ top wideouts thanks in large part to Joey Porter Jr., who could potentially shadow Bateman.
Regardless of whether Porter does that, this isn’t a great schematic matchup for Bateman, who has had better performances against both zone coverage as well as two-high safety looks. Bateman has a reception on just 9.8% of his routes run against single-high safety looks compared to 12.6% of routes against two-high looks.
Unfortunately for him, the Steelers play higher rates of both man coverage and especially single-high safety schemes.
Pittsburgh surprisingly is fifth in man coverage rate in the second half of the season and played the least amount of two-high safety looks. In fact, in the two regular season games against Baltimore, the Steelers played an even higher rate of man coverage at 53.3% while using single-high safety looks 78.3% of the time. In those two games, Bateman caught just three passes on eight targets for a 37.5% catch rate. While his long-term catch rate should be higher than that, it should also be lower than his 62.5% catch rate this season.
Bateman leads all receivers in catch rate among players with at least a 14.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT), and the average player with his aDOT should have about a 57-58% catch rate, which is right about where he fell each of the two seasons prior to this with similar target depths.
Certainly against a stingy pass defense like Pittsburgh, he should be below that 62.5% mark.
We can back-calculate how many targets he’d need at a projected 58% catch rate to break even on receptions at -140, and I get that number as 5.6 targets. That would be an average of a 19.6% target share on 28.5 pass attempts, which is Lamar Jackson‘s current line. I just can’t get to that number for Bateman.
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