In Week 16 I went a perfect 3-0, pushing my record to 37-16 (69.8%) on bets in this weekly props piece.
For NFL Week 17, I’m looking at bets for Devin Singletary, Alexander Mattison, and Tyreek Hill.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Week 17 Player Prop Picks
- RB Devin Singletary Over 19.5 Rush Yards (-110 at Bet365)
- RB Alexander Mattison Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at Bet365)
- WR Tyreek Hill Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at Bet365)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Devin Singletary Over 19.5 Rush Yards (-110)” subtext=”vs. Colts, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nygd.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/new-york-giants” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The New York Giants head into Sunday’s game against Indianapolis as the unlucky team in our Week 17 Luck Rankings.
Based on historical Luck Rankings games, the Giants are more likely to cover the spread in this spot, and I agree. I don’t believe Colts QB Anthony Richardson should be laying more than a touchdown to almost any QB, even Drew Lock. It seems the market agrees, as at the time of this writing, the line has moved from as high as +8 to +8.5 at some shops to +7 to +7.5 for the Giants.
That means they could be in a competitive game where they may elect to utilize the ground game to keep it close and give themselves a shot at the win.
And even if the Giants are tanking and the Colts blow this out, I’m not sure that hurts Singletary, who could get more run in a blowout to protect rookie RB Tyrone Tracy.
That means this over could be relatively script-neutral. Singletary has averaged five totes per game since Tracy established himself as the starter, and even if he meets that average, then four yards per carry is enough against a Colts defense that allows 4.4 YPC this season.
Given there are volume concerns here, I’d rather give Singletary a chance at breaking a long one if he comes in under the five carries, but I’m projecting him for six rushes on average.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Alexander Mattison Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)” subtext=”vs. Saints, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/oak.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas-raiders” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
When fully healthy, Mattison is the preferred receiving back in this offense when it comes to a decision between him and fellow RB Ameer Abdullah. That showed last week as Mattison was in his second game back from injury and ran a route on 41.5% of Aidan O’Connell‘s dropbacks compared to 39% for Abdullah.
Additionally, earlier in the season, it was much of the same as Mattison ran more routes than Abdullah in six of the first nine games, where both were fully healthy.
I’m attacking yards here because the Saints are relatively stingy at preventing catches to RBs, allowing the eighth-fewest per game despite allowing the 12th-fewest targets per game. That puts the Saints only 13th in yards per reception, so it’s possible Mattison clears this on just two catches, which wouldn’t clear his 2.5 reception line.
This is also a very good matchup for Mattison, as he gets a +14.4% coverage grade — the highest of any Raider this week — thanks to the Saints high rate of man coverage and Cover 2, which have been the two coverages Mattison has fared the best against this year.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tyreek Hill Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)” subtext=”vs. Browns, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/miami-dolphins” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
This seems like a silly number considering it’s Tyreek freaking Hill. Yes, I know the numbers haven’t been where he’s wanted them to be, and Tyler Huntley is likely the starting QB for Miami, and wind is in the forecast, but this is still too low.
Hill has one of the best WR coverage matchups of the whole week, ranking fourth among all WRs playing this week with enough qualifying routes thanks to the Browns‘ high rate of man coverage.
Tyreek should also have some positive catch regression coming his way. He’s caught just five of 14 targets the last two weeks, but in both those weeks, Dolphins first-string QB Tua Tagovailoa was dealing with a hip injury, which clearly affected him to the point where he’s doubtful this week.
Ideally, Miami is still eligible for the playoffs, but I’m taking this live during the Bengals–Broncos game, with Miami still technically alive, pending the outcome of that game.
It’s possible the Dolphins shut down Hill, who himself has been dealing with his own injuries, should the Broncos defeat the Bengals (the game is currently 10-10 as I write this), which would eliminate Miami from the playoffs. In that case, Hill would just be voided. And even if he does play with Miami eliminated, it could just take one or two catches against a bad Browns defense to clear this.
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