After a week off for Week 15, while I was on vacation, I’m back with my weekly player props piece for Week 16.
In Week 14, I went 2-1, moving my season-long record to 34-16 (68%) on bets in this weekly props piece.
For NFL Week 16, I’m looking at bets for Sam Darnold, Tre Tucker, and Baker Mayfield, with more picks likely to come. Be sure to check back in as I add to my NFL player props betting card.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Week 16 Player Prop Picks
- QB Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+112 at FanDuel)
- WR Tre Tucker Longest Reception Over 15.5 Yards (-118 at FanDuel)
- QB Baker Mayfield Over 14.5 Rush Yds (-113 at FanDuel)
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According to Fantasy Points data, Darnold has the top passing coverage grade of the week. Seattle employs a defense that uses around 60% man coverage or Cover 3. If we add in the red zone, prevent defense, and other miscellaneous coverages other than two-high zone looks, Darnold averages 8.67 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), with 27 TDs to just 6 INTs.
Against two-high zone, Darnold fares much worse, averaging just 5.2 ANY/A with 2 TDs and 5 INTs.
The Seahawks use two-high zone only 36% of the time, 12.5% less than Darnold has faced those coverages this year.
Another factor that may come into play is that Minnesota could struggle a bit on early downs, with Seattle coming in about 3% better than the Vikings’ recent opponents, forcing Darnold to throw more, increasing the chances of a long TD from one of his explosive receivers.
There isn’t a huge edge here, but I’m fine playing this to even money.
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Aidan O’Connell’s back for Tucker is massive, as he’s the QB most likely to throw downfield to the second-year wideout. With AOC under center, 48.8% of Tucker’s targets have come 16 or more yards downfield, compared to just 30% from Gardner Minshew and 8.3% from Desmond Ridder.
Jacksonville also presents a fantastic matchup for Tucker, who’s thrived throughout his short career against man coverages. The Jaguars play man at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and they also allow the second-most receptions of 16-plus yards.
The biggest concern for Tucker is volume, which is why I’m going with his longest reception market rather than yards or receptions here. He’s had two or fewer receptions in nine of 14 games, but three of those games came against man-heavy teams, and he still cleared 15.5 in two of them, including the only time Aidan O’Connell was the starter.
I’ll gladly take his longest reception against the worst pass D in the league, which also ranks 31st against the deep ball.
Since the best line for him is at FanDuel, I’ll also take him to record a catch of 30+ at +350 for a quarter unit.
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Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield has the starkest contrast in scramble rates in the league when it comes to pressure vs. no pressure, scrambling at a 14% higher rate under pressure according to PFF and nearly 21.5% more according to Fantasy Points data.
That’s going to elevate his scrambling chances because the Cowboys generate pressure at a top-three rate in the NFL, depending on which of the two sites you use, while Baker has faced the lowest pressure rate in the NFL among qualified QBs.
That easily gives Mayfield this week’s largest chances of an increase in scrambles. However, I’m going with the yards here because that’s the more prudent play.
Dallas allows the fourth-most yards on scrambles at nearly nine and one-quarter yards per attempt. So it could take Baker just two scrambles to clear this number.
I’m projecting Baker for 2.1 scrambles, 0.7 designed runs, and 0.5 kneel-downs for 19.1 yards on average, with a median closer to 17 yards, so I’d play this at 14.5 up to -130 or 15.5 at -110 to have some cushion.
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