We got back to our winning ways in Week 12 with the picks from this piece going 3-1. That moves my season-long results to 28-15 (65.1%) on bets in this weekly props piece.
For Week 13, I’m looking at bets on Russell Wilson, Anthony Richardson and Rashod Bateman with more picks likely to come. So be sure to check back in as I add to my player props betting card.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Week 13 Player Prop Picks
- QB Russell Wilson Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-106 at FanDuel)
- QB Anthony Richardson Under 27.5 Pass Attempts (-105 at BetMGM)
- WR Rashod Bateman Under 2.5 Receptions (+135 at ESPN BET)
- QB Kyler Murray Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105 at ESPN BET)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Russell Wilson Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-106)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/pit.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Cincinnati Bengals are the unlucky team in a Week 13 Luck Matchup that has strong signals on the unlucky team covering the spread. Since Cincy is the favored team, that means it could be ahead for a good chunk of this game, forcing Wilson to throw more than he has.
That’s important because Wilson’s floor this year for passing attempts has been 28 despite the Steelers winning four of the five games he’s started. In the Steelers’ only loss, the game was played in snowy conditions, forcing more rushing attempts.
Cincy is also a faster-than-average-paced team, and it has the league’s highest pass rate over expectation (PROE). Both of those should lead to above-average play volume on the Steelers side.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Anthony Richardson Under 27.5 Pass Attempts (-105)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ind.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Since Richardson returned from injury, the Colts have led in the second half for just six total plays in four games, with another six plays at a tied score. On the flip side, Indy has trailed for 146 second-half plays, meaning 92.4% of their plays in the more urgent half of the game have come when trailing.
Now it faces New England and are favored by 2.5 points, giving the Colts a better chance of a positive game script late.
Despite all the negative game script, Richardson averaged just 28.5 pass attempts per game, reaching a peak of just 32 pass attempts, which came against a tough run defense in a game the Colts trailed the whole second half.
Indianapolis also gets the biggest boost in weighted early-down success rate (wEDSR), with New England allowing a +10% success expectation over the defenses the Colts have faced recently. That should put the Colts in more short-down situations, potentially turning an extra passing attempt or two into a rush.
Another factor that helps the under is long plays, so even if Richardson throws a pass attempt, we’re rooting for a long completion. Fortunately, the Patriots are eighth-worst in defensive DVOA against deep passes.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Rashod Bateman Under 2.5 Receptions (+135)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/ESPNBET-rect-2colorway-e1700601975338.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
It’s going to be a tough day for Bateman, who will line up across stud rookie Quinyon Mitchell for nearly half his routes. Mitchell allows a target on just 11% of routes he faces and a catch rate of just 59%.
In addition, Bateman just hasn’t been productive against the coverages Vic Fangio likes to throw out, garnering a -28.2% expected production dip per Fantasy Points data.
Bateman has been a deep ball threat, but the Eagles rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA against deep passes. There’s also room for catch regression for Bateman; his 63.6% catch rate is around 6% higher than expected.
That regression seems like it would be most likely to come against one of the league’s best pass defenses and it’s pretty clear by his reception splits. Against top-half pass defenses by DVOA, Bateman has cleared 2.5 receptions just once in five games, while he’s cleared this in six of his other seven games.
If you want to be safer, under 3.5 is being offered at -165 at BetMGM, but I’d rather take under 2.5 at plus money here since I’m showing better-expected ROI on it.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kyler Murray Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/ESPNBET-rect-2colorway-e1700601975338.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
A lot of things are going against Murray in tandem. First, he faces a Vikings defense that blitzes and gets pressure at the highest rate in the league. Over the last three years, Murray’s turnover-worthy play (TWP) rate has jumped against both the blitz and pressure by several percentage points.
Because the TWP rate is highly noisy, that three-year sample size backs up the one-year trend we’ve seen this year for Kyler.
In addition, the Vikings are poised to put Arizona in plenty of long-yardage situations, as Arizona’s wEDSR has a -8.3% expectation, the worst among all teams in Week 13.
From there, Kyler isn’t likely to recover well as his QB coverage grade is -2.8% against the coverages Minnesota typically employs. The Vikings use the lowest amount of Cover 1 in the league, which would help Murray as he’s only thrown two turnover-worthy plays over the last three years against the coverage.
Instead, he’ll face the Vikings’ heavy zone defense. Murray has thrown 12 of his 16 picks against zone coverage. Two additional picks have come against Cover 0 which, when the Vikings do use man coverage, is the highest fraction of Cover 0 to total man coverage of any team.
The value on this is pretty thin. I wouldn’t play this past even money.
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