Each week, I’ll do a round-robin of five players whose upside I’m targeting. The goal is to hit three of five to make a profit, with exponentially increasing profits for hitting four or even all five legs.
These will be tracked each week in this writeup as well as under the ParlayExpress handle in the Action App.
Here are the five players whose upside I like for Week 12.
NFL Player Prop Round Robin
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Amon-Ra St. Brown 90+ Receiving Yards (+170)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Sun God’s targets per route increase from 20% to 29% when going from man to zone coverage, and the Colts play the most zone in the NFL.
Indy also has a tough time stopping shorter passes, allowing the ninth-worst defensive DVOA against these, which is the area in which St. Brown thrives.
The Colts’ quick pace and inefficient offense that relies on big plays has led to the second-lowest time of possession. Detroit should see plenty of the ball on Sunday, so expect big volume for its top receiver.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Justin Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards (+165)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Jefferson obliterates single-high safety looks to the tune of 4.13 yards per route run, the third-highest number of any pass catcher with at least 50 routes run against either safety look.
The Bears play single-high safeties fifth most since Week 6.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”CeeDee Lamb 80+ Receiving Yards (+155)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/dal.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
One team that plays single high safety looks more than the Bears – the Washington Commanders.
CeeDee Lamb hasn’t been as efficient as Jefferson against these looks, but he’s seen more volume, being targeted on 32% of these routes.
If he has an uptick in efficiency, which is the more variable metric than volume, he could be in for a monster day.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Travis Kelce 70+ Receiving Yards (+160)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Carolina Panthers allow the sixth-most yards per game to tight ends.
Kelce has a median of 67 yards per game since Rashee Rice’s injury, including clearing 60+ yards in three of four games with DeAndre Hopkins in the fold.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mike Evans 70+ Receiving Yards (+175)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/tb.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Evans averaged 73.8 yards per game last year with Mayfield at QB, and while he’s only averaged 47.9 this year, if we remove the game he got hurt, half his games have gone for 60-plus yards.
Now, with Chris Godwin out and a great matchup, Evans’ upside should be targeted here. I love a ladder opportunity on him in addition to throwing him in your upside round robins and parlays.
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