Last week felt like an unfortunate 2-2 week as Calvin Ridley’s four catches on five targets meant his receptions stayed under, but a couple long meaningless catches pushed his yards over, while Zay Flowers let a ball hit him square in the mouthpiece while he was wide open downfield. The 2-2 result moves me to 25-14 (64.1%) on the season on bets in my weekly props piece.
For my Week 12, I’m looking at D’Andre Swift, Caleb Williams and Tre Tucker, with more picks likely to come. So be sure to check back in as I add to my player props betting card.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Week 12 Player Prop Picks
- RB D’Andre Swift Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at bet365)
- QB Caleb Williams Under 4.5 Rushing Attempts (+125 at DraftKings)
- WR Tre Tucker Over 2.5 Receptions (-110 at DraftKings)
- RB Devin Singletary Over 0.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at bet365)
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This is a terrible spot for Swift, who has cleared this in six of the last seven games, with the only miss coming just four yards shy of clearing.
Minnesota is poised to put Chicago in a ton of third-and-long situations because of their fully healthy, elite front seven. The Vikings‘ elite run-stopping defense should hold Swift in check on early downs, reducing his yards per carry on those attempts. And when Chicago passes on the early downs, it could spell disaster for their offense.
Caleb Williams completely melts down under pressure, allowing a 27.3% pressure-to-sack ratio, which is only better than Will Levis among current starting QBs. It’s gotten worse since the Bears‘ bye week, jumping to over 31% despite facing four defenses that rank outside the top 10 in pressure rate. Well, the Vikings generate pressure at the highest rate in the league.
That means more third-and-long situations, which equates to fewer carries on third down since the Bears will need to throw more rather than rely on short-yardage pickups.
Swift always has the potential to bust long runs, which makes his mean and median projection one of the larger gaps among all RBs. Given the Vikings’ two-high zone defense strategy, they tend to keep runners in front of them, making it hard to bust longer runs, meaning I’d expect him to realize his upside less.
Swift is also dealing with a groin injury, which could limit his participation if he does play, which would only help cap his ceiling. And if he doesn’t play, we get refunded our money.
I have Swift’s median projection at just 48.5 yards.
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Rookie QB Caleb Williams has cleared this in six of 10 games, but if we remove end-of-game kneeldowns, he’s actually stayed under this number in six of 10 games.
Minnesota is another spot where he should stay under. Williams averages 2.9 scrambles per game and 1.5 designed runs per game, but Minnesota allows a bottom-five scramble rate despite the pressure they generate. That’s thanks to their two-high zone scheme, which doesn’t allow much open space for QBs to scramble.
I’m projecting Williams for a median of four carries with an average of 4.3, staying under 57% of the time, which is good enough at significant plus money.
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Some positive catch regression is in line for Tucker, who currently ranks 100th among qualified receivers by my numbers in catch% vs. expected. That likely doesn’t have anything to do with his ability, as last year, he was among the top receivers in this very same metric for those with at least 30 targets. It also doesn’t have much to do with the QB play, as Gardner Minshew‘s season-long completion percentage over expectation is +0.8%.
With Broncos‘ CB Pat Surtain likely to be on Jakobi Meyers for much of the game, and Las Vegas likely missing two of its RBs with Alexander Mattison and Zamir White doubtful, there’s a good chance Tucker is used on some gadget-like plays and possibly lines up in the backfield on some snaps.
That should increase his chances of receiving a shorter pass, which will help his expected catch rate.
We’re projecting him to go over 2.5 receptions around 63% of the time.
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Despite Singletary‘s shift to the RB2 behind Tyrone Tracy, he’s still been targeted five times in four games, catching at least one ball for positive yardage in three of four games.
Now the Giants are making a change at QB that might benefit Singletary. He could end up on the field for more overall plays if the Giants plan is to end up more run heavy to give Tracy a spell and end up playing a few more passing snaps as a result.
If that’s the case, Tommy DeVito has targeted his RBs at a 23.4% rate in his career, compared to 19.1% for Daniel Jones. If Giants WR Malik Nabers is out, or even limited, that should open up even more opportunity all around, as Jones has targeted WRs at just a 14.2% clip this year in part due to the presence of Nabers.
The Buccaneers allow the third-most targets and the most yards per game to RBs which only adds to the chances Singletary clears this line.
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