nfl-player-props-dr-nick-ravens-titans-falcons Pictured: Zay Flowers

NFL Player Props: Week 11 Picks for Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers, Bijan Robinson

Week 10 was just the second losing week for my weekly player props piece, with a 2-4 week dropping me to 23-12 (65.7%) on the season on these.

For my Week 11 picks, I’m starting my betting card with Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers, and Bijan Robinson. As always, check in throughout the weekend as I add more to my player props betting card.

Dr. Nick’s NFL Week 11 Player Prop Picks

  • WR Calvin Ridley Under 55.5 Yards and under 4.5 Receptions (Yards -113 at Caesars, Receptions +105 at BetMGM)
  • WR Zay Flowers Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at bet365)
  • RB Bijan Robinson Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-113 at FanDuel)

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Calvin Ridley Under 55.5 Yards (-113); Under 4.5 Receptions (-113)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

I tracked Calvin Ridley at under 54.5 yards on Friday night as I had been eyeing it all day, and then I started to see movement down to 53.5 at multiple books, but Caesars still had a 54.5 at a palatable price. I wake up Saturday and Ridley is up to 55.5 at Caesars, so definitely grab that if you can. I also like Ridley’s under 4.5 receptions at +105 at BetMGM.

The main argument here is a reduction in volume. Yes, Ridley has seen his volume increase with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins, picking up target counts of 15, eight and nine over those three games. The 15-ball was with Mason Rudolph at QB against a Lions team that allows a ton of volume to WRs. In the other two games, with Levis at QB, Ridley had five receptions in each, just one above this line.

Those latter two are closer to the range of what I’d expect, but there are reasons to like an even lower volume this week.

First, the Vikings play zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the league. Ridley’s targets per route run rate (YPRR) drops from 32% against man coverage to 19% against zone. In addition, the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league, which also drops Ridley’s target share from 24% of routes run to 21% with Levis at QB.

When Levis throws against the blitz, he tends to throw it deeper and less accurately, with the accuracy part actually hurting more than the depth helps as Levis’ yards per attempt decreases against the blitz. That will hurt both Ridley’s reception chances and yard numbers.

I haven’t even mentioned the Vikings have the No. 1 defensive pass DVOA in the league.

I’m projecting Ridley for 4.0 receptions with a median of 50.5 receiving yards.


[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Zay Flowers Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

This one boils down to one simple point — Zay Flowers‘ dominance against single-high safety looks.

Flowers is averaging 3.36 YPRR against single-high coverage, and Pittsburgh plays it at the highest rate of any team, utilizing it a shade over 70% of the time over the last six weeks.

Using Flowers’ 93% route participation and Jackson’s market average of 29 pass attempts, we get that Flowers should run around 19 yards against single-high safety looks.

That alone right there would put him at 63.4 yards against an average defense, and while the Steelers are better than average against WRs, I should note they have been much worse than average against slot WRs, where Flowers lines up nearly one-third of the time. So, on balance, it’s just a small hit to Flowers’ expected production.

I should also mention Flowers’ production skews even heavier toward upside against the zone-side of single-high looks, Cover 3 (3.93 YPRR), compared to Cover 1 (2.72 YPRR). That bodes even better as the Steelers play Cover 3 at the second-highest rate over the last six weeks compared to Cover 1 at the eighth-highest rate — still high, but not as high as Cover 3.

Then we still have to add in the approximately 30% of the routes he runs against two-high looks, which is another eight or so routes on average. That’s another 11.4 receiving yards expected, putting him at 74.8 against an average NFL pass defense against WRs with a median probably in the high 60s. Yes, we can knock that down against the Steelers, but that’s a lot of wiggle room down to 57.5.

So you can see the upside here for Flowers, who is a yards-after-catch (YAC) monster. Pittsburgh allows the 10th-most YAC per reception as well as the fifth-highest expected YAC per reception.

I will be laddering his upside here as well.


[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bijan Robinson Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-113)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/atl.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]

Bijan Robinson has an average of 30.3 receiving yards and a median of 27 in his 27-game career. Yes, I know last year took place under different circumstances in Atlanta, but I’m only highlighting the full sample to show the difference between mean and median isn’t all that great here.

In fact, in just 2024 alone, Robinson’s mean is 33.1, while his median is actually higher at 34 yards.

So the question is, should Robinson’s yardage projection be all that different from his per-game numbers here? I think there’s a case to be made that it should be higher than his average so far.

Denver allows the fifth-most receiving yards per game to RBs, thanks in large part to volume. I expect the volume to be high here as well, narrowing the mean-median gap. That’s because Denver should put Atlanta into plenty of passing situations thanks to my new favorite metric, early-down success rate differentials.

Atlanta has faced a very cushy schedule over its last six games, with opposing defenses allowing a non-garbage early-down success rate near 50%. Denver, on the other hand, allows just a 36.5% rate over its last six games.

Robinson is also relatively unique in that he has a higher YPRR (2.0) against man coverage than he does zone (1.4), which is in large part due to a superior YAC against man. The Broncos play man coverage at a top-five rate, so when QB Kirk Cousins gets Bijan the ball, there may be plenty of space to run.

Robinson is also relatively game-script proof averaging, crazy enough, a mean that rounds to 33 yards and a median of 34 yards both in Atlanta’s four losses as well as its six wins.

_InlineAdBlock