My Week 9 player props were 3-1, which improved me to 21-8 for the season.
For my Week 10 picks, I’m starting my betting card on Friday night with Derek Carr and DeMario Douglas. As always, check in throughout the weekend as I add more to my player props betting card.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Week 10 Player Prop Picks
- QB Derek Carr Under 0.5 Interceptions (+120 | bet365 or DraftKings)
- WR DeMario Douglas Longest Reception Under 16.5 Yards (-105 | BetMGM, DraftKings, ESPN BET)
- QB Daniel Jones Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-113 at FanDuel | -114 at BetRivers)
- WR Troy Franklin Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110 | bet365)
- RB James Conner Under 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110 | bet365)
- QB Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions (-128 | FanDuel)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Derek Carr Under 0.5 Interceptions (+120)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
For the third week in a row, I’m going to back a quarterback to not throw an interception against the Falcons.
This bet lost in Week 8 but was a winner last week, and I bet on two quarterbacks who were particularly prone to throwing interceptions in Baker Mayfield and Dak Prescott. Those two quarterbacks each near or above a 4.0% turnover-worthy play (TWP) rate while combining for 17 interceptions on 31 TWPs — right about league average in terms of INTs per TWP.
However, Derek Carr sits at just 2.2% with only four TWPs on the season, making his four interceptions quite unlucky considering the INT to TWP rate hovers around 60% across the NFL.
Meanwhile, Atlanta is a great matchup for him to avoid an interception. There are all the reasons I listed in Week 8 and Week 9 for Mayfield and Prescott, but there’s even more reason to believe this matchup is even better for Carr.
Carr’s TWP rate drops from 3.4% to 1.6% when going from pressure to a clean pocket. The Falcons struggle to generate pressure, ranking 30th of 32 defenses in pressure rate. Atlanta also blitzes at a lower rate than average, which drops Carr’s TWP rate from 4.8% when blitzed to 0.8% when not. That’s not just a one-year sample either, as this trend applies to Carr since he joined the Saints.
There’s also the chance that Taysom Hill could end up throwing a pass or at least line up under center, which takes a potential pass attempt or two away from Carr.
Finally, our Action Network Luck Rankings have the Saints as the significantly unlucky team. That makes New Orleans more likely to cover the spread and avoid a pass-heavy game script.
I’m backing a quarterback with a low TWP rate against a defense that allows the highest completion percentage in the league.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”DeMario Douglas Longest Reception Under 16.5 Yards (-105)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ne.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/new-england-patriots” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Based on current weather forecasts, there’s a possibility of high winds with a forecast between 15-25 mph that could be a near-perfect crosswind. That’ll have a couple of effects. Overall passing volume lowers by about 1.5 attempts per game for each team in games with winds of 15 mph or higher. It also makes deep balls harder to catch, which is great for the under on a longest reception prop.
DeMario Douglas has gone over this number four times, but those hits came in each of his four high-volume games that saw him draw nine targets in each. In five other games, he’s had three or fewer targets.
In addition to the wind, there are other reasons his target volume should decrease.
The Patriots‘ receiving corps is fully healthy for just the second time all season, which means targets should be spread out a bit more. Additionally, the Bears defense ranks fourth in DVOA against the pass but 30th against the run. That’s an extreme run funnel, which New England would be wise to exploit with a few extra rush attempts.
The Bears also lean zone-heavy in their coverage, which hurts Douglas since he has a slightly higher target rate against man coverage and averages 10.8 yards per reception compared to 7.3 against zone coverage — and that’s also with a slightly lower target rate.
Finally, the Bears generate pressure at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, which hurts Douglas. His targets-per-route-run rate drops from 0.29 when his quarterback has a clean pocket to 0.10 when pressured. That’s particularly pronounced with Drake Maye under center. The rookie goes from targeting his first read 73% of the time to just 21% of the time when pressured. Maye is also more than three times more likely to scramble than Jacoby Brissett.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Daniel Jones Under 25.5 Rush yds (-113)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nyg.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/698811_BetRiver@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betrivers” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Jones averages 27.1 non-kneel down rush yards per game, but this game may have his highest kneel down potential yet. And, correlatedly, this game also has the highest positive game script (meaning run-heavy) potential of all games as the Giants are the largest favorites they’ve been this season.
Carolina also generates the lowest pressure rate in the league, which will lower Jones’ scrambling rate. He scrambles on just 2.3% of dropbacks when not pressured compared to 6.2% when pressured, which, over the course of 30-plus dropbacks is one less scramble — the type of play that generates the highest yards per carry for quarterbacks.
Carolina does a couple other things that also makes scrambles less likely, or at least less likely to go for long runs. The Panthers use two-high safeties at a top-three rate and play the eighth-highest amount of zone defense, both of which correlate with lower scramble rates and yards allowed on scrambles as less space opens up as quarterbacks tend to have more defenders looking at them rather than having their backs turned.
Pittsburgh employs a similar defensive strategy in terms of zone coverage and two-high safety looks while generating a low pressure rate, and held Jones to just one yard on three carries.
I suspect this is a game where the Giants will lean heavily on Malik Nabers, Wan’dale Robinson and Tyrone Tracy, and Jones won’t need to call his own number much.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Troy Franklin Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/den.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Kansas City employs man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL and Franklin has been targeted on an absurd 46.2% of his routes run against man.
Franklin fares worse against two-high safety shells, but of those, he’s fared best against Cover 2 and Cover 2 Man, which the Chiefs play at or above league-average rates. And against single-high safety looks, he’ll be facing man coverage for the bulk of it rather than Cover 3, which Kansas City uses at the second-lowest rate in the league.
He also lines up in the slot on a handful of snaps, which will generate a positive matchup against Christian Roland-Wallace, who has been targeted on nearly 20% of all routes covered.
Denver has led enough this year that it hasn’t had to pass at super high frequencies, but this is certainly a spot where the Broncos could trail for long stretches of the game, which would increase the pass volume.
Alternatively, you could look to his longest reception over 12.5 yards.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”James Conner Under 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
There are a couple hidden factors that make me like Conner’s under, despite a perceived good matchup against the Jets, who rank 24th in defensive DVOA against the run.
Haason Reddick’s return from a holdout two weeks ago has really plugged up that offensive left side, where Conner likes to run and where nearly 40% of his rushing attempts are directed. With Reddick in the lineup, the Jets have allowed just 3.0 yards per carry to the offensive left side, compared to 4.9 yards per carry without him.
We certainly need to be aware that they came against the Patriots and Texans, but runs up the middle and to the right were actually worse for the Jets’ defense over the past two weeks, so it’s not totally just a schedule thing.
Looking across the NFL since Week 4, the Cardinals have faced opponents that allow a 45% early down success rate, while the Jets defense has allowed just 41% in that category for nearly a 4% downgrade.
That should put Arizona in more long-yard situations, forcing a more pass-heavy plan that’ll lead to fewer rushing attempts.
On the other side of the ball, the Jets actually get nearly a 3% upgrade in expected early down success rate as the Cardinals defense is worse than the average defense New York has faced recently.
That’s likely to lead to better chances for the Jets to put up points, which may put Arizona on its back foot in terms of game script.
I have Conner projected closer to a median of 74.5 yards.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 Interceptions (-128)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/tb.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Baker Mayfield has been an interception machine this season, but is coming off a zero-interception game against Kansas City in which he had four passes defended and one turnover-worthy play.
This week, he gets a step up in class as the 49ers have defended passes at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, while forcing quarterbacks into a 0.6% higher TWP rate than their averages. That doesn’t sound like much, but 0.6% on top of Mayfield’s 3.9% TWP rate is a 15.4% relative increase.
Tampa Bay is also more likely to trail than not, which should put it in a more pass-heavy game script than the Buccaneers have been in on average this year — especially in the second half where they’ve ran nearly as many plays with the lead as behind.
Yes, Charvarius Ward is out for the 49ers, but he’s been San Francisco’s worst graded corner in coverage this season. Mayfield may struggle against a stingy pass defense without his top two receivers and when he’s trailing, he often forces throws he shouldn’t.
I have this projected at closer to -150 as fair value, so I’m fine if you want to play this at -135 at bet365, ESPN Bet or DraftKings.
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