Our expert NFL projection models are live for the season, including NFL player props! We’re covering the five biggest edges for Week 1.
Quarterbacks and running backs headline our top predictions for Sunday of Week 1. All five edges are over/under picks.
Today’s best NFL player props are in the early and afternoon windows: Patriots vs. Bengals, Titans vs. Bears, Cardinals vs. Bills, Raiders vs. Chargers and Steelers vs. Falcons.
Sunday’s top prop predictions feature notable stars like Josh Allen, as well as Kirk Cousins, who will be making his team debut.
With PRO Projections guiding our picks, here is a breakdown of our top player props for Week 1.
NFL Player Props, Predictions: Best Week 1 Picks from Expert Projections Sunday
PRO Projections are betting predictions developed by fantasy expert Sean Koerner and the Action Analytics Team. We evaluate our odds against the markets and showcase top picks based on the difference, categorizing each pick with a simple A, B, or C rating system.
All five picks for this Sunday are worthy of Grade-A selections.
Let’s start with the lone A+ pick for Week 1.
Bengals RB Chase Brown Over/Under 9.5 Rushing Attempts
As the Bengals and Patriots clash in their season opener, Chase Brown’s rushing attempts, set at 9.5, is the best pick to consider.
The Bengals’ offense is in flux, with key players on the injury report, creating some uncertainty around Brown’s role. Instead of estimating a larger role for the depth back, projections reveal a bearish outlook.
PRO Projections slot Brown’s rushing attempts closer to 7.5, identifying a significant edge to betting the under. This prop is given an A+ rating, making it a crucial bet to consider.
PRO Props Pick: Chase Brown Under 9.5 Rushing Attempts
Bears RB Khalil Herbert Over/Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts
Sticking with the early window, Khalil Herbert’s rushing attempts stand out among the Titans vs. Bears player props.
The rejuvenated Bears’ offense includes Herbert sharing carries with D’Andre Swift, making rushing attempts worth examining. Odds for Herbert’s rushing attempts are set at 7.5, but PRO Projections forecast only 6.3 vs. Tennessee, presenting a substantial edge for betting the under.
Given the dynamics of the Bears’ offense, this prop bet receives a solid ‘A’ grade.
PRO Props Pick: Khalil Herbert Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts
Bills QB Josh Allen Over/Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts
The Bills vs. Cardinals game, expected to be high-scoring, features a fascinating Josh Allen player prop.
Allen is known for his dual-threat abilities. The over/under on his carries vs. the Cardinals is 7.5. PRO Projections, however, estimate his attempts more conservatively at 6.4, providing a favorable edge for the under.
We’re fading the fantasy football darling in Week 1.
PRO Props Pick: Josh Allen Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts
Raiders QB Gardner Minshew Over/Under 7.5 Rushing Yards
Minshew, having won the starting QB job, has a rushing yard line set at 7.5. PRO Projections peg his rushing yards closer to 6.0, delivering a notable benefit for the under.
PRO Props Pick: Gardner Minshew Under 7.5 Rushing Yards
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins Over/Under 23.5 Completions
Despite being in his first year with a new team and being surrounded by adept WRs, RBs, and TEs, PRO Projections suggest caution on Kirk Cousins’ debut.
The line for Cousins’ completions is established at 23.5, but our projection stands at 21.5, signaling an advantage for betting the under. Like our other picks, this prop secures an ‘A’ grade to round out Week 1 predictions.
PRO Props Pick: Kirk Cousins Under 23.5 Completions
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.