We’re covering two sneaky NFL player prop picks for Monday Night Football, focusing on the Commanders vs. Bengals matchup.
While the game boasts plenty of flash with quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow, we’re zeroing in on a couple of significant edges in different markets.
Using PRO Projections, our proprietary betting data from a team of NFL experts, we’re able to pinpoint betting edges by comparing odds, player projections, and more against the betting markets. Based on this analysis, we recommend tailing only those NFL player props with at least a 3.5% grade or higher.
Fortunately, two picks align perfectly with this threshold — and even surpass it comfortably.
NFL Player Prop Picks for Monday Night Football Week 3
Monday Night Football Player Prop Pick No. 1
The first player prop we’re highlighting is for Commanders kicker Austin Seibert, where the over/under is set at 6.5 kicking points.
Our expert PRO models project Seibert to make approximately 5.73 kicking points.
The difference presents an 11.5% edge favoring the under and the top edge for Monday Night football across both games. Given this solid margin, this prop bet holds significant value in a smaller market.
PRO Projections Pick: Austin Seibert Under 6.5 Kicking Points
Monday Night Football Player Prop Pick No. 2
Transitioning to the next edge in this matchup, we focus on Bengals running back Chase Brown, specifically on the over/under for his rushing yards.
The betting market has set the over/under at 24.5 yards, but PRO Projections have pegged Brown at closer to 30 rushing yards. This discrepancy offers a 6.7% edge for bettors. With this favorable projection, betting on the over is a smart move.
PRO Projections Pick: Chase Brown Over 24.5 Rushing Yards
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.