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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Joey Slye Under 7.5 Kicking Points (-140)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Cardinals” awayslug=”arizona-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/was.png” homename=”Washington Commanders” homeslug=”washington-commanders” date=”Sunday, Sept. 10″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
The Commanders had the third-highest rate of going for two last year; they were also above league average in passing up field-goal opportunities.
The Cardinals have a bad defense, so teams score more touchdowns against them. Case in point: Teams attempted 6.6% fewer field goals per game against them than league average, instead kicking 34.8% more extra points per game than average. This trend should carry over into 2023 given the Cards will likely be tanking for draft position.
There’s a 60% chance of rain, which will hurt kicker accuracy in the event it gets wet.
I project a 63.8% chance of Slye staying under 7.5. I’d bet this to -150.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Nick Folk Under 6.5 Kicking Points (-105)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” awayname=”Tennessee Titans” awayslug=”tennessee-titans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/no.png” homename=”New Orleans Saints” homeslug=”new-orleans-saints” date=”Sunday, Sept. 10″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
Last season, Titans kickers scored just 30.9% of their points. A team total of 19.5 against the Saints means they’d average 6.0 kicking points at that rate.
The Saints allowed 1.8% lower adjusted kicking points per game last year vs. league average.
I project under value on both extra points made and field goals made, so take the combo of both and play the under on kicking points.
I project a 58.2% chance of Folk staying under 6.5. I’d bet this to -125.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Evan McPherson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+115)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png” awayname=”Cincinnati Bengals” awayslug=”cincinnati-bengals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cle.png” homename=”Cleveland Browns” homeslug=”cleveland-browns” date=”Sunday, Sept. 10″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
The Browns allowed field-goal attempts at a 5.4% higher rate than league average in 2022. As for the Bengals, they went for it on fourth down at the fourth-lowest rate.
McPherson has gone over this number in 24-of-39 (61.5%) career games.
Any potential rust from Joe Burrow due to his calf injury could slightly decrease Bengals TD chances and increase field goal chances.
I project a 52.4% chance of McPherson going over 1.5. I’d bet to +100.
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