My lone player prop for the Divisional Round was on Rashod Bateman, and that was a win, moving my record in my weekend piece to 41-19 (68.3%) on the season.
For the NFL Conference Championship Round, I’m looking at Curtis Samuel for my top player prop in Bills vs. Chiefs.
Dr. Nick’s NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Picks
- Curtis Samuel Longest Reception Under 11.5 Yards (-115; DraftKings)
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Kansas City’s defense generates pressure at a top-five rate and blitzes at a top-five rate, meaning the default assumption of no pressure and no blitz on any given play is going to be far lower than what Josh Allen has faced in most games this year.
That hurts Samuel as his targets per route run drops 10% when either a blitz is used, or pressure is generated.
In the two cases where pressure is generated (either with or without a blitz), Samuel’s target rate is at its lowest at just a 10.6% target per route run rate. For context, Samuel has had seven such targets all season, or about one every other game he’s played. He’s only caught three of these as they tend to be passes farther down field (aDOT of 17.6 yards), so now we’re talking one catch every four to five games or so against pressure.
When Allen is blitzed but there’s no pressure, Samuel’s targets per route run actually goes way up to 29%. However, these are short targets with an average depth of 5.8 yards and an average reception length of 10.3 yards.
We saw a lot of this in the Bills’ regular season game against Kansas City where Allen looked to Samuel six times. Samuel had five receptions with a long of 21 yards.
However, there was no Keon Coleman and no Dalton Kincaid that week, so Samuel played the third-most snaps he has all season, with the other two being the week prior when Kincaid got hurt early in the game and Coleman also missed, as well as Week 18 when Buffalo rested its starters.
The Chiefs also love to sit in a two-high shell and keep their opponents in front of them, which should limit Samuel’s yards after catch opportunity.
I’m projecting Samuel for just two catches for 17 yards, so I like this at 11.5 at any juice better than -130, but I would not take it at 10.5.
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