NFL Week 8 wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football game between the Giants and Steelers. I actually have three bets to recommend for this one, so let’s jump into my favorite Monday Night Football picks.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Giants Team Total Over 14.5 (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nyg.png” awayname=”New York Giants” awayslug=”new-york-giants” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/pit.png” homename=”Pittsburgh Steelers” homeslug=”pittsburgh-steelers” date=”Monday, Oct. 28″ time=”8:15 p.m. ET” network=”ABC/ESPN” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
This was almost a Luck Rankings over, as the model has this with a luck total of 9.2 (10.0 is needed for a recommendation). However, the Giants have been an unlucky team in general, with a 20.2% luck gap and 29.3% scoring luck gap.
A lot of this has to do with red zone scoring. The Giants have the worst red zone touchdown rate in the league despite being 21st in non-garbage time offensive success rate. The Steelers’ defense, on the other hand, has the fourth best red zone touchdown rate despite being 13th in non-garbage time defensive success rate.
Both of those numbers should regress toward the more stable metric, that being success rate.
The Steelers have also faced the sixth-easiest schedule in terms of opposing offenses, while the Giants have faced about average opposing defenses. It’s also worth noting that the Giants were without Malik Nabers for two games.
In terms of pure sides and totals, I lean toward both the Giants and the over, so a Giants team total over is a nice combination look.
I’m getting around 16.5 expected points for the Giants tonight, based off of expected scores with strength of schedule, pace, and injury adjustments.
Pick: Giants Team Total Over 14.5 (-110)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Devin Singletary Under 1.5 Receptions (-115)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nygd.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Devin Singletary is coming back from injury and may not be at the snap share he was at the start of last year (~70%).
Even if he is, Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been the Giants’ pass-catching back, especially of late.
Singletary gets targeted on jut 10% of his routes against single-high safety looks, compared to 25% against two-high safeties. The Steelers play single-high at the second highest rate.
I also lean toward the Giants to cover, which may put Singletary in a more neutral or even leading game script compared to average this year.
Singletary is due for some catch rate regression as well, as he’s catching 91% vs. 83% expected, and that should drop to around or below 80% expected if his aDOT increases from a career low of -3.8. That could especially be true tonight as the Steelers force the 12th-longest aDOT in the NFL.
My most conservative projection makes this a coinflip, but I more realistically have Singletary staying under this more than 60% of the time.
Pick: Devin Singletary Under 1.5 Receptions (-115)
[expertpickswidget league=”nfl” gameid=”227463″ date=”20241028″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Malik Nabers Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-115)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nygd.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
As mentioned above, the Steelers give a single-high safety look at the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Nabers’ targets per route run increases against that defense, and Daniel Jones throws it further, taking deep shots on 13% of his pass attempts compared to 4% against two-high safety looks.
Jones also throws to his first read more than 75% of the time against single-high safety looks, compared to 63% against two-high. Nabers is obviously the first read more often than anyone on the Giants.
The Pittsburgh defense blitzes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL and generate pressure at the 10th-lowest rate. Nabers’ targets per route run jump a bonkers 44% when there’s no blitz and no pressure.
Nabers has also cleared this mark in four of the five games he’s played, and I think this would be a spot where he’s more likely to clear it than average.
To have a 20+ yard catch is around -180, but somehow for just two more yards he’s in the -115 to -120 range.
I love this and would play it to 22.5 with -115 to the over or 23.5 at plus money.
Pick: Malik Nabers Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-115)
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