NFL Week 8 gets started tonight with a Thursday Night Football game between the Vikings and Rams. Let’s jump into my favorite Thursday Night Football pick, where I’m taking a specific angle on one of the game’s quarterbacks.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Sam Darnold Over 31.5 Passing Attempts (+100)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/min.png” awayname=”Minnesota Vikings” awayslug=”minnesota-vikings” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/la.png” homename=”Los Angeles Rams” homeslug=”los-angeles-rams” date=”Thursday, Oct. 24″ time=”8:15 p.m. ET” network=”Prime Video” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
Sam Darnold has not cleared this number a single time all year, while the Rams have held teams under in five of their six games. So it almost feels like books are baiting you to take the under.
Even without that consideration, there are plenty of reasons to like the over.
The Rams are more likely to lead and/or cover this game as the matchup’s unlucky team, which would lead to a more pass-heavy script by Minnesota.
Additionally, the Rams play at the seventh-fastest neutral game script and possess the ball for an average of just 28:50 per game, which should open up more time for the Vikings to possess the ball.
Darnold also has a negative matchup. He’s been great against man coverage, but the Rams play zone at a top-five rate rate. As I mentioned on my Luck Rankings article, the Rams play man about 10% less often than Darnold has faced this season. Instead, they play covers 3, 4, and 6 a total of 64% of the time. Darnold’s efficiency is worse against those three coverages.
The Rams also might be throwing the ball more themselves with Cooper Kupp back in the fold, which could lead to either big plays or incompletions that stop the clock. Similarly, the Vikings might be a bit more inclined to throw with TJ Hockenson back. At the very least, it could draw a few targets away from the dumpoffs to running backs and push the ball downfield more, meaning more overall play volume.
Pick: Sam Darnold Over 31.5 Passing Attempts (+100)
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