NFL Picks Against the Spread Today: Best Bet for Week 8
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Looking for the single best pick against the spread on Sunday in the NFL? You’ve found it — and it’s for a fantastic game, too.
Our director of predictive analytics makes his NFL pick against the spread today with his best bet for Week 8.
Best NFL Bet Against the Spread for Sunday
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This game has a luck rank differential of 11 in our NFL Luck Rankings, with the Rams being the unlucky team. Los Angeles has been the ninth-unluckiest team this season in the NFL, and a lot of that bad luck has been due to its 1-4 record in one-score games.
The Rams have had a tougher schedule than Dallas so far and had a much more competitive game against the 49ers than Dallas, which lost by 32. Los Angeles was tied at half, ended up out-gaining the 49ers by more than 20 yards and lost by seven.
The Rams are yet to lose a game by more than seven points, as well, which is another reason +7 seems a bit high here.
The Cowboys’ pass rush started the season off hot. They led the league in pressure rate after facing the Giants and Jets in Weeks 1 and 2. Since then, they’ve struggled to generate pressure and rank 21st in pressure rate. Matthew Stafford might have a cleaner pocket to work from than we would expect here.
Dallas has struggled defending the middle of the field, ranking 27th in DVOA over the middle of the field. That’s an area Stafford should be able to exploit with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Dallas should be favored here, but the key number of +7 is too high. As of Sunday morning at 1 a.m. ET, you can still get +7 at bet365, Caesars and PointsBet.
Pick Against Spread: Rams +7
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