NFL picks for Week 2 are largely based on what bettors just saw one week ago.
This doesn’t mean it’s a smart NFL betting strategy — it’s simply human nature.
Bettors had all summer to make their NFL picks for Week 1, so when those go awry, or there are simply unexpected results — there were plenty of unexpected results last weekend — it’s easy to treat them as gospel.
That’s exactly why the sharpest sports bettors rely on data to make their NFL picks.
Data, which is the cornerstone of the Action Network’s NFL PRO betting tools, takes emotion out of the equation, leaving it to the numbers to decide on the top value bets of a given week.
And when it comes to the top data-driven NFL picks for Week 2, four games come to the forefront as ones bettors should be keying in on for Sunday’s slate of games, including:
- Panthers vs. Giants (1 p.m. ET)
- Falcons vs. Rams (4:05 p.m. ET)
- Bengals vs. Cowboys (4:25 p.m. ET)
- Texans vs. Broncos (4:25 p.m. ET)
NFL Picks for Week 2
*NFL odds as of Sunday morning
Panthers vs. Giants Pick
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Let me preface this by saying that I’m a Giants fan, so seeing New York as a favorite in Week 2, after an upset win over the Titans in Week 1, makes me nervous, but should I be?
Well, according to the Action Network’s NFL PRO Betting Systems, my anxiety is warranted.
Specifically, the Panthers match our Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season PRO System, which identifies teams being undervalued due to poor previous seasons in low-total games.
This NFL betting strategy has produced a 237-148-10 (62%) against-the-spread record since the start of the 2004 season, covering by an average margin of 2.37 points.
Considering the tight Panthers vs. Giants spread, a Carolina cover will likely result in a Carolina win as well.
Fan tax, anyone?
PRO Report Pick: Panthers +2
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Falcons vs. Rams Pick
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
The Falcons are 10-point underdogs against the Rams on Sunday afternoon, and our PRO betting tools show that smart money has already taken a market-moving position on Atlanta.
Atlanta opened at +11 earlier this week and has landed 52% of the spread tickets to this point.
But more importantly, those 52% of bets represent 79% of the money wagered on the spread, suggesting that oddsmakers are heavy with Falcons money.
The Falcons vs. Rams odds movement seems to confirm this theory as sportsbooks have knocked this spread down to a consensus of Atlanta +10.
PRO Report Pick: Falcons +10
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Bengals vs. Cowboys Pick
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Bengals vs. Cowboys odds movement has been fascinating to this point.
Following Dak Prescott’s injury on Sunday Night Football, sportsbooks opened the Bengals as 6- to 6.5-point favorites depending on the shop, and that number quickly moved to -8 across the market.
However, once off the key number of seven, the wiseguys struck.
Big bets from sharp players slammed the undervalued Cowboys at this point, driving the spread back down to +7 at most sportsbooks.
However, notice how I said “most” and not “all.”
There are still some Dallas +7.5s out there at places like FanDuel, so be sure to visit our NFL Live Odds Page to snag that all-important hook if tailing to the pros on this matchup.
PRO Report Pick: Cowboys +7.5
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Texans vs. Broncos Pick
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
This is a case of where odds movement has gotten to the point where it’s smarter to buy back than tail.
The Texans vs. Broncos over/under has rocketed from 43 to 46 at DraftKings, and even higher in other spots.
But based on our NFL betting model projections, the value now lies with the under.
We project this line at 43.6, resulting in a 3.1% edge based on the widely-available 45.5 as of the time of writing.
And as I just mentioned, DraftKings is at 46, so go ahead and lock in that free half-point of line value if betting this Sunday NFL Week 2 edge.
PRO Report Pick: Under 46
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