NFL Picks Week 10: Expert’s Best Bets for Sunday

NFL Picks Week 10

The team logos in the table below represent each matchup that Sean Koerner is betting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Texans vs. Bengals”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 47″ league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/hou.png” awayname=”Houston Texans” awayslug=”houston-texans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/cin.png” homename=”Cincinnati Bengals” homeslug=”cincinnati-bengals” date=”Sunday, Nov. 12″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

This is the second-highest total of the week, which makes sense given how explosive both passing offenses can be. Both teams are dealing with key injuries, though, which could limit them.

The Texans will be without WR Nico Collins. They should be fine with WR Tank Dell and TE Dalton Schultz as C.J. Stroud’s key targets since both are playing at a high level. Collins is 6-foot-4 with four touchdowns this season, so his absence will be felt in the red zone.

Stroud has been much better playing indoors. His rate of 8.9 yards per attempt indoors leads the NFL, but his 6.8 mark outside is 22nd. He also could be even less efficient without Collins.

On the other side, the Bengals will be without Tee Higgins, who is one of the better No. 2 WRs in the NFL. He helps draw attention away from Ja’Marr Chase and is also a red-zone weapon.

Also, Ja’Marr Chase is also looking iffy to suit up with a back injury. Even if he plays, he may not be 100%. The Bengals offense will likely be less efficient with their top WRs banged up.

Texans EDGE rookie Will Anderson has been great in his first eight games, proving to be an excellent run defender and an even better pass rusher. Despite being double-teamed at a high rate, he has been able to generate 28 pressures on the season but has been a bit unlucky to only have two sacks. I’ve recently been doing more work around defensive player projections and he appears to be on the verge of a true breakout game and that could come as soon as this week.

I’m projecting this total much lower at 45 and want to lock in the key number of 47 before any potential news about Chase being unable to suit up or be limited in any way.
[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Under 47″ linktext=”Tail Koerner at FanDuel With QuickSlip” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.402599776&selectionId=7017917&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Packers vs. Steelers”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Packers +3.5 (-115)” league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/gb.png” awayname=”Green Bay Packers” awayslug=”green-bay-packers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/pit.png” homename=”Pittsburgh Steelers” homeslug=”pittsburgh-steelers” date=”Sunday, Nov. 12″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

This is the Luck Rankings play of the week, so you better believe this is the one I’m rolling with it. This game has a luck rank differential of 29 and a luck gap of 50%.

A huge reason for this is the fact the Steelers are not only the luckiest team after nine weeks, but the luckiest team we have seen (after nine weeks) in the last six seasons. They’re 5-0 in one-score games, many of which required a fourth-quarter comeback to win. In fact, Pittsburgh’s time of possession with the lead is just under 5 minutes per game this season, which is the second-lowest rate in the NFL. The other 4 teams that rank bottom five in that metric have an average of 2.8 wins.

I’m mainly fading the fraudulent 5-3 Steelers here. While the 3-5 Packers aren’t necessarily a Super Bowl contender, they’ve been playing closer to a .500 team, making them a decent team to buy low on.

Unlucky road teams with a luck differential of 28+ are 12-2 (86%) against the spread over the past six seasons, so that’s where our money is going in Week 10.

As of Saturday night at 10:45 p.m. ET, I’m buying the half-point at FanDuel to get me to +3.5.

Pick: Packers +3.5 (-115)

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