Four NFL spreads in Week 1 are right in the wheelhouse for PRO Systems.
Our proprietary models crunched the odds and submitted four NFL picks to exploit this Sunday, ranging all day: Titans vs. Bears, Cardinals vs. Bills, Panthers vs. Saints and Commanders vs. Buccaneers.
All four Week 1 games align with a specific NFL betting angle we’ve applied for years. The four NFL spreads are certainly worth the wager in the 2024 season opener, featuring undervalued teams with a win rate against the spread of 62% lifetime.
PRO subscribers gain access to top-notch NFL picks through various tools, expert projections, insights and more.
Having reviewed all the essential details, it’s time to spotlight four NFL against-the-spread picks that bettors can exploit in Week 1.
NFL Tips: Week 1 Betting Spreads to Exploit
Early-season NFL action is the prime window to beat the market, so let’s get after it.
Sunday’s 62% win-rate angle is straight out of PRO Systems, designed to uncover value in spreads that may fly under the radar. The trend will pop up in future weeks with suggested picks, too.
Notice a trend among all four games that fit the PRO System in Week 1? Let me explain.
The first month or two of the NFL season still tends to bring out public biases from last season.
Our NFL betting system “Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season” looks to take advantage of the perceptions that a team may not be competitive based off last season’s results.
In the first six weeks of the NFL season, underdogs of 6.5 or lower, with low totals (50 or lower) usually cover the spread — if the team won six or fewer games the prior season.
The trend has cashed at a 59% clip lifetime. However, betting these teams in September, November and December pumps the win rate all the way up to 62%.
At the time of writing, the Titans, Cardinals, Panthers and Commanders all match the components: The spread and over/under are in appropriate ranges, and all four teams won six or fewer games last season.
Titans vs. Bears Spread Pick for Week 1
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Our own Brandon Anderson highlighted Tennessee head coach Brian Callahan as a sharp bet for Coach of the Year.
The PRO System, meanwhile, spotlights the Titans in a good spot to kick off the year.
PRO System Pick: Titans Spread
Cardinals vs. Bills Spread Pick for Week 1
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The Bills look a whole lot different this year than last. The model prediction is on Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Cardinals to stay within the 6.5-point spread.
PRO System Pick: Cardinals Spread
Panthers vs. Saints Spread Pick for Week 1
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The Panthers were the worst bet against the spread in the NFL last season. However, ugly sides like the Panthers plus the points have usually been the right bet in these circumstances.
PRO System Pick: Panthers Spread
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Spread Pick for Week 1
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Lastly, the Commanders spread behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels checks the boxes.
PRO System Pick: Commanders Spread
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.