We’re using PRO insights to find the best NFL picks for rookie quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, who will be making their highly anticipated NFL debuts this Sunday.
And did we ever.
For those interested in NFL player props this season, PRO Prop Projections will provide a detailed analysis by weighing player performance metrics. These projections are essential for crafting a well-informed betting strategy in a variety of individual markets.
In addition, our PRO Systems spotlight unique betting edges in moneyline, spread and over/under markets – and that’s exactly where the value lies for rookie quarterbacks this Sunday.
For Week 1, one system marked a couple picks for Titans vs. Bears and Commanders vs. Buccaneers, emphasizing edges the spread.
Here’s the plot twist: Our advanced NFL models recommending betting on one of the rookie quarterbacks’ team to cover, and the other to potentially flop in a big way.
NFL Picks for Rookie QBs: How to Bet Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels NFL Debuts
Williams and Daniels, both former Heisman winners, carry high expectations (and fantasy football influence) into their first professional games after being selected No. 1 and 2 this past draft.
PRO houses a situational angle which favors one quarterback, and opposes the other.
Our NFL betting strategy “Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season” capitalizes on the perception that a team may not be competitive based off last season’s results.
In the first six weeks of the NFL season, small underdogs (+6.5 or lower) with low totals (50.5 or lower) usually cover the spread if the team won six or fewer games the prior season.
The trend has cashed at a 59% clip lifetime. However, betting these teams in September, November and December boosts the win rate all the way up to 62%.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1039990″ systemname=”Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season (PRO)” leaguename=”nfl” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20was%20played%20on%20Sunday%20or%20Monday%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Dog%22%2C%22the%20team’s%20previous%20season%20win%20total%20is%20between%200%20and%206%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Visitor%20team%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20spread%20is%20between%200.5%20and%206.5%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%200%20and%2050%22%2C%22the%20game%20was%20played%20in%20September%20or%20December%20or%20November%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$8,736″ record=”256-160-11″ winpct=”62%”][/betlabsembed]
Titans vs. Bears Pick
[gamematchup league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/ten.png” awayname=”Titans” awayslug=”tennessee-titans” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/598430_bears1.png” homename=”Bears” homeslug=”chicago-bears” date=”Sunday, Sep 8″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+3.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-3.5″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”44.5″ col2hometext=”44.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+154″ col3hometext=”-185″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”DraftKings” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/603379_Primary.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gamematchup]
Williams makes his highly-anticipated debut at home. He and the Bears are laying points to a Titans team which only won six games last year.
He could go absolutely have a good game, and the Bears could win. However, strictly focusing on the spread, over/under and situation, teams like Tennessee tend to cover.
PRO System Pick: Titans ATS
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Pick
[gamematchup league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/698864_Commanders.png” awayname=”Commanders” awayslug=”washington-commanders” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/tb.png” homename=”Buccaneers” homeslug=”tampa-bay-buccaneers” date=”Sunday, Sep 8″ time=”4:25 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+3.5″ col1awayline=”-108″ col1hometext=”-3.5″ col1homeline=”-112″ col2awaytext=”42.5″ col2hometext=”42.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+160″ col3hometext=”-192″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”DraftKings” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/603379_Primary.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gamematchup]
Sunday’s scenario, meanwhile, favors Daniels and the Commanders.
The 4-13 squad from last year looks a whole lot different, led by the reigning Heisman winner and new head coach Dan Quinn.
Washington is a match for the PRO System in Week 1.
PRO System Pick: Commanders ATS
_InlineAdBlock
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.