NFL Picks for Week 17
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Sean Koerner: Everyone knows these teams can put up points, and Lions home games have averaged more than 60 points per game this season. So, it’s no surprise that 64% of bets and 74% of the money is on the over.
Our expected score metric that helps fuel our Luck Rankings is showing value on the under here, though. It’s likely due to both teams ranking in the bottom five in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed, while the Lions have the third-highest red-zone touchdown percentage this season. Those numbers are likely to regress closer to league average moving forward.
Also, we have Adrian Hill officiating this game. He’s been very friendly to the under in his career, going 38-24 (61%).
I’m projecting this closer to 50.5 and would bet it down to 51.5.
Pick: Under 52.5 |
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Sean Koerner: The Texans have been playing well over their last three games, nearly beating the Cowboys and Chiefs before taking down the Titans last week. Houston’s defense is a big reason for these performances, ranking 13th in Football Outsiders’ Weighted DVOA metric.
The Jaguars have nothing to gain with a win since their playoff fate will come down to their Week 18 matchup against the Titans with the AFC South on the line. I wouldn’t be shocked if Jacksonville limits some of its key players to avoid injury here.
I like getting the key number at +3 with the Texans at home.
Pick: Texans +3 |
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