The Thanksgiving holiday often means getting caught up with more important things that the NFL betting market.
Most fans and bettors pay very close attention to the three-game Thanksgiving slate, but then between parties, friends, family and traveling can lose track of the market for a few days ahead of Sunday’s games.
So if you’re behind on your NFL research and handicapping and may have even less time to dedicate to it while traveling home, I went ahead and compiled The Action Network’s three biggest NFL betting model edges for Sunday’s slate, all of which are detailed below.
NFL Betting Model Predictions
*Odds and betting data as of Saturday afternoon
Chargers vs. Broncos Betting Model Prediction
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Despite being 2.5-point home underdogs (click here for the latest NFL odds) against the Chargers, our betting model suggests the Broncos should actually be -0.2 in this matchup.
The ability to get down on Denver as a short dog translates to a 5.2% edge for those willing to back Teddy Bridgewater and Company on Sunday afternoon.
PRO Projections Pick: Broncos +2.5
_PromoID=[3992, 10661, 2936]
Titans vs. Patriots Betting Model Prediction
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Right off the bat we have our biggest edge of NFL Week 12.
The Action Network’s NFL PRO Projections set the Titans vs. Patriots spread at Tennessee +4.4, resulting in 5.9% edge considering the widely-available +7, a key number in football betting.
PRO Projections Pick: Titans +7
_PromoID=[10659, 5113, 4418]
Eagles vs. Giants Betting Model Prediction
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Speaking of key numbers, the most important number for NFL bettors plays a key role in Eagles vs. Giants value.
While New York +3.5 is the current consensus spread, and savvy bettors can shop the market and find +4 available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of writing, our NFL model projects this number at Giants +2.2.
The difference between +2.2 and +3.5 boils down to a 4.6% edge, and as I just mentioned, an edge that can be increased even further by snagging the +4.
PRO Projections Pick: Giants +4
_PromoID=[10655, 3990, 5819]