Our holy grail of PRO-fueled Sunday anytime touchdown scorers is out for Week 12! Among the nine premium picks that made the cut are a bunch that would be considered “longshot” bets.
Two touchdown picks in particular our advanced NFL models are higher on than the public are priced at +850 and +1500 to score a touchdown Sunday. However, our proprietary data and odds are much more favorable.
Plus, using the best odds available for both touchdown bets Sunday produces a massive parlay payout of +15100 at FanDuel for those interested in recreational, smaller-volume bets that won’t cut into bankroll or affect morale if it doesn’t hit; odds say the chances are slim, but they’re better than what the market’s expecting when using our fair odds for the TD picks.
The two big touchdown bets Sunday from Action PRO models below are in the Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders (1 p.m.) and Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams (Sunday Night Football) games.
NFL Parlay Week 12: Data-Driven Longshot Touchdown Bets Sunday
There are many reasons to be optimistic about tailing PRO Projections’ “longshot” picks or under-the-radar players.
For starters, they’ve won! The TD tool has been spot on: Xavier Gipson (+1800), Tanner Hudson (+1000) and John Metchie III (+1000) top the list of sharpest calls just the last few weeks.
Secondly, if you’ve been following touchdown projections, you’ve probably noticed something: Our NFL experts are so good at forecasting when a diamond-in-the-rough player will break out that even if the longshot TD edge on a certain player doesn’t win that week, the player usually sees increased playing time, or is more involved in the offense than the public thinks. I cannot begin to tell you how important it is to consistently be ahead of the market by a week or two betting picks that pay out the prices some of these do.
Also, here’s a hint: If DeVonta Smith misses extended time in the Eagles’ offense, PRO Projections uncovered a sleeper who could emerge.
Combining player predictions, odds, edge and more, the first of two longshot bets for NFL Sunday Week 12 to score a touchdown using Action PRO models is Washington Commanders RB Jeremy McNichols, who was +900 at release and down to +850.
Our prediction is the backup Commanders running back scores 16% of the time, offering a nice edge over the market. Basically, our fair odds for McNichols to score is more like +525.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Jeremy McNichols TD (+850)
DeVonta Smith was ruled out for the Eagles in Week 12 vs. the Rams on Sunday Night Football. Who gets a bump for Philadelphia to score with Smith — who leads the team with four receiving TDs — when factoring in odds and predictive analysis?
A.J. Brown? Dallas Goedert? Saquon Barkley? Johnny Wilson?
No, no, no and no.
Try rookie slot receiver Ainias Smith, who’s not being priced properly, according to Action PRO models.
At FanDuel, Smith is +1500 to score — a modest chance. Our NFL experts forecast Smith to score about 10% of the time, which equates to true odds much closer to 9/1.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Ainias Smith TD (+1500)
Parlays aren’t for everyone. That said, I’ve documented enough big-time wins from our NFL experts and their TD projections all season, and I can confidently admit that I also parlayed both picks for a wager extremely smaller than my relative unit sizing.
Have a great Sunday!
Parlay Price: +15100
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