This is a big weekend for my wife and me.
My wife turned 40 over the summer, but delayed her birthday trip to Las Vegas until this weekend so she could bet and sweat an NFL regular season slate.
I’m a lucky man.
With sports betting a driving force behind this trip, NFL odds for Week 6 are very top of mind for the two of us, especially when determining our favorite picks for Sunday’s schedule of games.
In order to identify today’s top value bets, we turned to the Action Network’s PRO Report to sift through the latest NFL odds and settle on today’s two smartest picks.
NFL Odds & Picks for Week 6
*NFL odds as of Sunday morning
Patriots vs. Raiders Pick
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Historically, buy-low opportunities do offer value, no matter how difficult they may be to actually bet.
The Patriots got pummeled by the Saints last week, however, backing New England and the points is the smartest way to get down on this game.
According to the Action Network’s Dogs After Blowout PRO Betting System, NFL underdogs of at least three points coming off losses of at least 20 points — the Pats lost by 31 last week — are 323-233-13 (58%) against-the-spread.
Again, this isn’t the prettiest play on Sunday’s Week 6 odds board, though it is a spot that has been profitable since 2003.
PRO Report Pick: Patriots +3 (-115 via DraftKings)
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Lions vs. Buccaneers Pick
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
Detroit’s offense tends to get the most attention, but the betting market is banking on a lower-scoring game against the Bucs on Sunday afternoon.
This total opened at 44.5 earlier this week, but big bets from respected players have pushed this line down to 42.5.
So why are the wiseguys so bullish on the Lions vs. Buccaneers under?
Perhaps it’s as simple as the weather.
Steady 13-mph breezes are expected today at Raymond James Stadium, making this game a match for our High Winds PRO Betting System that has produced a 576-439-8 (57%) record dating back to the 2003 season.
PRO Report Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)