NFL odds for Week 1 are always so interesting to examine.
Because lines are posted back in May, there’s plenty of time for bettors to shape NFL odds over the course of the summer.
This line movement is monitored and analyzed by the Action Network’s PRO Report and can help determine the NFL picks that pro bettors are making heading into Sunday’s season-opening matchups.
So with the first full slate of the season nearly upon us, here are three of Sunday’s sharpest NFL picks, including Bengals vs. Browns, Packers vs. Bears and Eagles vs. Patriots.
NFL Picks for Week 1
*NFL odds as of Sunday morning
Bengals vs. Browns Pick
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Bengals vs. Browns is such a fascinating matchup.
Cincinnati is clearly a Super Bowl contender heading into the season, while Cleveland could also be very good if, and it’s a very big if, quarterback Deshaun Watson returns to his Houston form.
And while bettors are essentially split 50/50 on the Bengals vs. Browns spread, influential players appear to be on Cleveland.
To start, the Browns have garnered 48% of the tickets, suggesting relatively balanced action.
However, the Action Network’s NFL public betting data is reporting that the home underdogs have also attracted a much more hefty 82% of the money.
With the bigger bets coming in on Cleveland, this spread has dipped from its opening number of Browns +2.5 to a consensus of +2 (click here for live NFL odds), with some shops, like FanDuel, moving even more aggressively to +1.5.
PRO Report Pick: Browns +2
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Packers vs. Bears Pick
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay is officially over.
This is now Jordan Love’s team and the Packers will only go as far as he takes them.
And according to the latest market activity, bettors are, at the very least, finding value in the Cheeseheads this afternoon.
Much like Bengals vs. Browns above, the Packers opened as 2.5-point underdogs against the Bears and sharp action from savvy bettors has kicked this number down to +1.5.
Wiseguys have steamed Green Bay on multiple occasions, and with the Pack landing 67% of the loot on just 46% of the bets, oddsmakers were forced to react by shortening this spread.
PRO Report Pick: Packers +1.5
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Eagles vs. Patriots Pick
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
In Bill Belichick bettors trust.
The Pats initially hit the market at +4.5 and, once again, our betting data shows large wagers flowing on the underdogs.
Just 38% of the tickets have hit New England, but that minority represents 60% of the money, kicking this spread down to +3.5 at most sportsbooks.
However, BetMGM is still offering a full four points for those willing to shop for the best odds.
And finally, two of the Action Network’s top NFL bettors — Chad Millman and Collin Wilson — have gotten down on the Patriots as well, aligning our experts (click here for all of our expert picks) with the market’s biggest bettors.
PRO Report Pick: Patriots +4
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