NFL odds for Week 1 have been available since May, though most recreational bettors refrain from jumping on these early lines.
However, savvy players are always on the lookout for value and have no problem locking in NFL picks for Week 1 whenever the price is right.
And while many casual bettors are likely enjoying the summer and not paying attention to NFL Week 1 odds, Action Network’s PRO betting tools have been hard at work monitoring the latest betting market activity to pinpoint exactly where the smart money has been flowing over the past couple of months.
With this in mind, let’s dig into three NFL Week 1 picks that sharps are already making, including Patriots vs. Bengals, Cowboys vs. Browns and Jets vs. 49ers.
NFL Picks for Week 1
*Odds as of Aug. 2
Patriots vs. Bengals Pick
Sunday, Sept. 8 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
The largest spread of NFL Week 1 comes via Patriots vs. Bengals, with Cincinnati sitting between a 9- and 9.5-point favorite.
And despite the nearly double-digit spread, smart money has already come in on the Bengals to this point.
Cincy initially hit the market at -8.5 and was quickly steamed, pushing it up to the latest prices.
In case you’re wondering, steam refers to sudden, uniform line movement across the market that is often the result of bettors with the resources and respect to move odds getting down on the same side of the same game at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.
A few words of context here as well: The spread movement we’ve seen thus far happened shortly after Week 1 odds opened, so activity has been very quiet of late.
Further, due to a lack of key numbers, a move from -8.5 to -9 and/or -9.5 isn’t a massively noteworthy adjustment, though oddsmakers felt motivated enough to move it to account for an influx of early Cincinnati action.
PRO Pick: Bengals -9 (-110) — DraftKings
Cowboys vs. Browns Pick
Sunday, Sept. 8 | 4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
As usual, the Dallas Cowboys have been a popular topic across mainstream sports media this offseason, specifically surrounding the futures of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
And while it’s just one game, the betting market is also fading Dallas against Cleveland in Week 1.
The Cowboys opened at -1.5 against the Browns, however, multiple waves of wiseguy action have hit Cleveland throughout the summer, flipping it from a 1.5-point underdog to a 1.5-point favorite.
PRO Pick: Browns -1.5 (-110) — FanDuel
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Jets vs. 49ers Pick
Monday, Sept. 9 | 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN
One might assume that Aaron Rodgers’ return would result in bettors banking on a higher-scoring game against the 49ers on Monday Night Football, though the opposite is the case.
Behind two steam moves, the Jets vs. 49ers total has dipped from 45.5 to 44.5 at books like FanDuel and bet365, though DraftKings is holding steady — on its own — at 45.5 for all of you faithful line shoppers.
PRO Pick: Under 45.5 (-110) — DraftKings
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