The Action Network has developed a betting system with NFL picks for the Divisional Round that is 75% against-the-spread (ATS) since 2003.
Hat tip to our very own Brandon Anderson on this one.
This ATS system targets specific parameters that light up for only about 1.5 playoff games per season.
It doesn’t encompass every game — the game needs to occur under a specific set of NFL odds boundaries in order to fit the criteria.
But for Jaguars vs. Chiefs and Giants vs. Eagles on Saturday, the system fits snug.
A $500 per game bettor would be up about $7,000 by simply tailing this system over the last 20 odd postseasons.
Here are the details of the strategy that has produced a 24-8-1 ATS record over the last 20 years, including its NFL picks for Jaguars vs. Chiefs and Giants vs. Eagles on Saturday.
NFL Odds, Picks for Saturday
Elementally, this betting system fades No. 1 seeds in the Divisional Round that are coming off byes — but only under specific parameters.
The top-seeded team needs to be favored by 10 points or fewer.
As of Friday morning, the consensus price for the Chiefs is -8.5, while the Eagles have remained firm since opening as 7.5-point favorites, meaning both fit this system.
As mentioned, these types of top-seeded NFL teams have covered the spread just 25% of the time since 2003.
The best price on the market for the Jaguars is +9 (-110) with Caesars. The Giants’ best line is +8 with PointsBet.
Only once in the last eight years have both No. 1 seeds covered in the Divisional Round, and it has happened in only two seasons since 2003.
There’s also value on the moneyline under these same principles. Underdogs in this manner have gone 24-8-1 ATS and 13-20 on the moneyline.
While that moneyline record doesn’t necessarily look menacing, it has developed a 37% return on investment due to the large, plus-money payouts.
In fact, a $500 bettor would be up over $6,000.
Last season, both underdogs under these parameters won outright: The 49ers, as +210 dogs, beat the Packers at Lambeau while the Bengals (+175) went into Nashville and beat the Titans.
The best price on the ML market for the Jaguars is with BallyBet at +400. If you’re not in a state with that sportsbook, roll with BetRivers’ number at +380.
And the best price for the Giants’ moneyline is with PointsBet at +300.
Picks: Jaguars +380 or better | Jaguars +9 (-110) or better | Giants +300 or better | Giants +8 (-110) or better
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