Let me set the stage for you: I’m currently sitting in a cabin located on a couple hundred of acres in the woods that is owned by my wife’s family.
I know, this sounds more like a horror movie script than an NFL betting article, but the takeaway is that I’m very much removed from what is happening in the sports world right now.
Sure, the cabin has cable with every sports channel imaginable, but I’m at a freakin’ cabin in the woods — I don’t want to spend it sitting on the couch watching TV all weekend.
But just because I’m out of the sports loop doesn’t mean I’m taking the weekend off from betting, meaning it’s the perfect situation to take full advantage of The Action Network’s NFL PRO Report.
It takes just a few scrolls of the mouse or swipes of the screen to see the best NFL Week 9 bets according to five of the most important value indicators, and after doing just that, here are Sunday’s top football value bets.
NFL Betting Predictions for Week 9
*Odds and data as of Saturday afternoon
Broncos vs. Cowboys NFL Betting Prediction
1 p.m. ET | FOX
The Dallas Cowboys are 6-1 on the season, have a perfect 7-0 against-the-spread (ATS) record and are coming off a huge win against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football with backup quarterback Cooper Rush subbing for an injured Dak Prescott.
Yup, it’s time to bet against Dallas.
According to The Action Network’s Fade Covering Teams NFL PRO Betting System, which fades teams covering the spread so easily like the Cowboys, has won at a 56% ATS clip since 2005.
In addition, our NFL PRO Projections make the Broncos vs. Cowboys spread Denver +7.1, resulting in a 4.5% edge when compared to the current consensus line of +10.
PRO Report Pick: Broncos +10
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Patriots vs. Panthers NFL Betting Prediction
1 p.m. ET | CBS
The NFL betting market is extremely efficient, meaning betting model edges are often very tight.
But Sunday’s schedule does offer some nice edges (like Broncos vs. Cowboys detailed above), and Patriots vs. Panthers is the largest of them all.
Our model currently projects Carolina at just a 1.8-point underdog, translating to a juicy 6.2% edge considering the widely-available Panthers +3.5 spread.
PRO Report Pick: Panthers +3.5
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Falcons vs. Saints NFL Betting Prediction
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Falcons vs. Saints not only has two PRO Systems aligned on the same side, but it’s also showing a very nice edge as well.
To start, the Falcons are a match for the Fade Covering Teams PRO System detailed above for Broncos vs. Cowboys.
In addition, Atlanta also fits the criteria of our Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season PRO System, which has provided a stellar 230-145-10 (61%) ATS record dating back to 2004.
The final nail in the Falcons’ value coffin comes via our NFL PRO Projections, which show a 3.9% edge based on our suggested spread of Atlanta +4.2.
PRO Report Pick: Falcons +6.5
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Browns vs. Bengals NFL Betting Prediction
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Yes, we have another match for the Fade Covering Teams PRO System, by way of fading Cincinnati.
In fact, one of The Action Network’s top NFL bettors has also gotten down on Cleveland with the points, adding expert consensus to the historically-profitable betting system.
PRO Report Pick: Browns +2.5
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