Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria 122-68-6 (62.9%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
Last week, the unlucky teams in the six Luck Rankings matchups went 5-1-0 ATS giving the unlucky team in luck-based matchups a 9-7-1 (55.9%) start ATS on the season.
There were also six luck-based totals from last week. Luck Unders went 2-1-0 to the under, while Luck Overs went 3-0-0 to the over in Week 4 for a 5-1-0 week on Luck Totals.
As a reminder here are criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 15-8-1 (65%) on the season.
NFL Week 5 Preview
Update Oct. 7: NFL Luck Rankings went 1-0 on Sunday and the model has a pick on tonight’s Monday Night Football game between the Saints and Chiefs.
We have one Luck Matchup and one Luck Total for Week 5. All of the below will be tracked as official Luck Rankings plays when compiling the season-long records cited above, but I’ll also note whether or not I’m following along with the Luck Rankings recommendation or not for each game.
Week 5 marks a bit of a turning point in the Luck Rankings landscape.
We now see a higher proportion of Luck Matchups come from the Luck Difference criteria (criteria No. 1 above), and a lower proportion from the Luck Gap criteria until we get to Week 13. That said, the one matchup this week meets both criteria.
NFL Week 5 Predictions With Action Network’s Luck Rankings
Luck Difference: 28
Luck Gap: 66.8%
With a Luck Difference of 28 and a Luck Gap of 66.8%, this is a very strong Luck Rankings signal on New Orleans as the unlucky team. The Saints rank 30th in our Week 5 Luck Rankings, while Kansas City ranks second. The Saints are also coming off a week that saw them as the unluckiest team in the NFL.
Unlucky teams in games with a Luck Difference of 28 or more are 23-12-1 (65.2%) ATS including 14-4-0 (77.8%) if the unlucky team is also on the road (as New Orleans is here). Unlucky teams in games with a Luck Gap of 50% or more in Week 5 or later are 9-5-0 (64.3%) ATS including 4-1-0 (80%) if the unlucky team is also on the road.
In other words, the unlucky teams cover at a very high rate when the gap is this wide, especially when that team is on the road.
Atlanta scored 26 points against New Orleans last week despite technically never running a play in the red zone. (The Falcons entered the red zone once but immediately left it because of a penalty.) The Falcons instead scored on four long Younghoe Koo field goals, including a 58-yarder, and two defensive/special teams touchdowns. That’s an unsustainable way of scoring, which is why they had an Expected Score of just 14.7 points.
Without any lucky touchdowns against, the Saints should cover a 5.5-point spread. They lead the Chiefs in all four facets — offensive and defensive pass and rush DVOA — which is schedule adjusted. Those advantages are despite DVOA not accounting for luck.
The Saints currently have the single highest Expected Pythagrean Wins using Expected Scores, while the Chiefs rank seventh.
Both teams are suffering from the injury bug, which about neutralizes any differences there. I think this line should be closer to Chiefs -4 with the potential to be even shorter depending on how injury reports shake out. Even if injuries break against New Orleans, +5.5 is still a solid line.
I already bet Saints +5.5, but we got +6 on Wednesday morning at BetMGM and Caesars.
Verdict: Bet New Orleans +6
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Luck Total: -7.9
The Luck Total of -7.9 makes this game a Luck Under, and I do like the under here because Buffalo has been involved in higher-scoring games than expected.
Games involving Buffalo have seen a total of 205 points scored compared to what should be 175.9 according to Expected Scores. That almost 30-point gap after four games makes up nearly the full scope of the -7.9 Luck Total.
NFL teams have combined for 44.2 points per game by Expected Scores, but both Buffalo and Houston actually have had slightly lower Expected Score totals than that. Buffalo is at 44 and Houston at 42.6 points in games they are involved in by expectation.
While I think these teams could end up slightly over expectation over the long haul because of how explosive their offenses can be, 47.5 is still a field goal more than expectation that these teams have produced on average.
That said, with our PRO Report showing 83% of bets and 95% of money on the over, I’m happy to wait this out and let the line move up to get an even better number. I do think it’ll go higher given the high profile nature of these two teams’ offenses.
Verdict: Wait; Bet Under 48 or better
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