Turkey, sides, a few drinks, your couch and betting on football. That’s as American as it gets to me and why Thanksgiving is king when it comes to holidays for bettors.
And when your Aunt asks you what your favorite Thanksgiving side is, tell her about your favorite NFL bet. Oh, and don’t worry about how many sides you eat — you’ll burn it all off sweating games throughout the day and rest of the weekend.
That’s at least what I tell myself.
To help you finalize your NFL action for Thursday, we asked members of our staff to provide their single favorite Thanksgiving NFL bet.
We have selections for all three games, including sides, totals and even a few props. Let’s get into our 16 favorite Thursday NFL bets, starting with the NFC North showdown in Detroit. — Stuckey
>> All odds pulled on the afternoon of Nov. 21, so slight line variations are possible. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting odds: Bears at Lions
- Odds: Bears -3
- Over/Under: 43
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
Matt LaMarca: Bears -3
I don’t typically like betting on favorites — particularly road favorites — but Thursday football games are the exception. The short week really seems to benefit the superior team: Thursday favorites are 93-62-3 against the spread (ATS) since 2003, including 7-2 ATS this season.
The metrics suggest there is a massive gulf in talent between these two teams, with the Bears currently ranking third in DVOA and the Lions ranking 29th (per Football Outsiders).
The Bears will likely be without quarterback Mitch Trubisky, but the downgrade to backup Chase Daniel is probably not as large as the public thinks.
It also dropped this line to the key number of three, and the Lions are dealing with some injuries of their own: They’re expected to be without both Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones, which is not ideal against the best defense in the league.
Collin Wilson: Lions +3
I’m going to disagree slightly with Matt here. I played the Lions at +4 earlier in the week and still like them if you can find a +3 or better (which I think you should between now and kickoff). The Bears were just -7 when these two teams met earlier this month in Chicago, implying the Lions would have been +1 at home.
Now, just a few weeks later, the Bears are 3-point favorites on a short turnaround after an emotional win without their starting quarterback? Crazy. Oh, and I get to fade Chase Daniel.
Stuckey: Lions +8.5/Eagles PK Teaser
While I agree more with Collin on the Lions, for those who still can’t decide or missed the number you wanted on the Lions, let me offer a solution: a six-point teaser that I played earlier in the week.
This fits my teaser criteria of teasing two NFL sides across multiple key numbers (the only time I’d ever advise anybody to utilize teasers). I think teasing the Lions up over eight holds even more value in a game that shouldn’t feature many points.
Enjoy the turkey binge and please never tease through zero.
Betting odds: Redskins at Cowboys
- Odds: Cowboys -7
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
PJ Walsh: Redskins +7
The betting market appears to be overreacting to quarterback Alex Smith’s injury. Sure, the drop-off from Smith to backup Colt McCoy is notable, but McCoy is a competent second-stringer.
According to our public betting data, 54% of tickets are laying the points with Dallas, but 53% of actual money wagered is taking the points with Washington. Unsurprisingly, the line has moved with the money from Redskins +9 to +7 at BookMaker.
I cited Skins +7 above, but you may still be able to find a +7.5 at some squarer shops, so make sure you shop around and grab the valuable hook off the key number.
Travis Reed: Redskins +7
I grabbed +7.5 earlier in the week, so as PJ said, make sure you shop around for the best number if you do indeed like Washington.
I still like the Redskins getting a touchdown in this division rivalry. McCoy is one of the better backups in the league and I think he can keep this game close, especially since I think the Redskins game plan will involve frequently handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson.
Dallas has won two straight, but are wins over the Eagles and Falcons as impressive as we think? Give me the points in a game I think comes down to the wire.
Matthew Freedman: Redskins +7
I’m a self-loathing Cowboys fan, and this tweet pretty much says it all.
It's almost Thanksgiving, which means it's time to eat pie and remember that the #Cowboys are 0-7 against the spread on Turkey Day with Jason Garrett as the full-time head coach.
They've failed to cover by 10.44 points per game.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) November 21, 2018
There might be some flukiness with Jason Garrett’s horrid ATS Thanksgiving record, but it might make sense given who he is as a coach.
He’s the type of strategian who needs time to prepare. Thoughts and concepts that might come quicker to other coaches take Garrett significant time to find. With limited ability to game plan, he gets exposed.
At least that’s my theory.
Ian Hartitz: Redskins +7
I saw Freedman’s tweet and agree with idea of betting against the clapper on my favorite holiday of the year.
Also, McCoy isn’t that much worse than Smith in terms of career yards per attempt (6.6 vs. 6.9). The Washington offense should at least move the ball against the Cowboys’ talented pass-funnel defense.
The Cowboys do boast a run-blocking advantage at the line of scrimmage, but the Redskins’ superior combined pressure rate and lower combined turnover rate should help them keep this within a touchdown.
Scott Miller: Redskins-Cowboys Under 40.5
I lean toward the Redskins, as well, in part because I’m expecting a low-scoring game.
These are two of the NFL’s slowest-paced teams, according to Football Outsiders. Part of the reason for that? They both rank in the top 10 in run percentage this season.
Playing on a short week with a backup quarterback, Washington should be even more methodical and run-heavy than usual.
As an added bonus, this will mark the second time this season these two teams have played.
I like backing under bets in games like this between division rivals, particularly when you get to fade the public in the process — 69% of tickets are on the over at the time of writing, and yet the line has ticked down from an opener of 41 to 40.5.
Evan Abrams: Adrian Peterson Scores TD +145
This prop has too much value for it not to be my favorite bet on Thanksgiving.
For starters, Adrian Peterson will have extra motivation on the road in AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys because he is, and always has been, a big Cowboys fan. The Texas native even has family members that will still root for Dallas.
Peterson has always thrived playing with motivation and in a game that will be based on the ground, I think he has a real good chance to score.
Peterson has played two career games on the road in Dallas and has scored touchdowns in both games — averaging 5.3 and 5.6 yards per carry.
Honestly, I think Peterson to score at least two touchdowns at +550 (BetOnline) even holds value. Peterson found the end zone twice against the Texans last week and without quarterback Alex Smith, Peterson will become even more of a focus on offense.
Betting odds: Falcons at Saints
- Odds: Saints -13
- Over/Under: 60
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
Chad Millman: Falcons +13
Bet the Falcons at your own risk, as they are prone to breaking your heart through inconsistency, frustratingly soft play on both sides of the ball and a legacy of having their wings clipped just when it seems they may soar into the stratosphere.
But, as my bookmaker buddy Scooch told me on The Favorites podcast, he sees the real value of this line as being closer to 10.
He hung it at 14.5, hoping to get Falcons money because he knows the public will hit the Saints with ferocity. The line quickly moved from 14.5 to 13 and, when Scooch moved it back to 13.5, he got hit again with Falcons money.
That’s where I’m putting my cash, too. It’s impossible to love Atlanta in any scenario, but when a bookmaker tells me he over-weighted the Saints to an extraordinary degree, I’m inclined to follow.
Geoff Schwartz: Falcons +13
Are the Falcons suddenly the Bills or the Raiders? This line was set to sucker the public into laying all these points with the Saints — and guess what, they are.
The Falcons have the seventh-best DVOA offense. Furthermore, their fifth-ranked passing offense will face a Saints pass defense that ranks 28th. The Saints might score 45 points, but the Falcons could just as easily score 35.
In their last 10 meetings, only one was decided by more than 13 points and only two by more than 10 points. The Falcons would like nothing more than to go into the Dome and beat the Saints on national TV.
I’m not sure they can win, but they can at least keep up on offense.
Danny Donahue: Falcons Moneyline +500
Since their Week 1 loss to Tampa, the Saints have looked scary good, outscoring their opponents, 338-191, during a nine-game winning streak. As a result of that run, the Saints are a 13-point favorite over Atlanta on Thursday.
The spread, however, isn’t what’s caught my attention.
According to our Bet Labs data, when a playoff team from the previous season is listed as a double-digit dog, that team has gone 20-62 (24.4%) straight up since 2005.
All right, so it’s not a great record, but it has been enough to win 33.9 units for a 41.4% return on investment. And on the more rare occasion when the two teams are in the same division, that record becomes 9-19 — and the ROI shoots up to 73.9%.
I don’t expect to win this bet, but the expected value is certainly there, so I’m comfortable firing away.
Ken Barkley: Falcons +13
To follow up on what Danny said, I do agree that the moneyline holds value. However, this spread is what caught my attention.
The perception of Atlanta in the market is awful right now; they’ve lost two in a row, including a game against the Browns. Prior to the two-game losing streak, the sentiment was “Atlanta is back and making noise!” after they beat up on Washington following a bye.
In reality, the Falcons are just an OK team with a little value. And in a divisional game, unless the gap between the teams is historically massive, the underdog is probably the way to go.
I understand that no one wants to bet against the team that seemingly wins by 100 points every week, but I don’t really care what New Orleans did against Cincinnati or Philadelphia. This is different.
John Ewing: Falcons-Saints Under 60
Bettors think Saints-Falcons will be a shootout. More than 80% of tickets have been placed on the over, moving the total 59 to 60 at the time of writing.
The public is expecting a Chiefs-Rams-like scoring bonanza that we saw on Monday Night Football (105 points scored), but history suggests this game could go under.
Unders are more profitable in high-total games (more than 44 points) featuring division rivals. The theory behind this trend is that increased familiarity between teams tends to favor lower-scoring games.
Betting division unders late in the season (Week 11 or later) has been the optimal strategy as unders in these games have gone 163-101-3 (62%) since 2003, according to Bet Labs.
Chris Raybon: Alvin Kamara Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
In our Falcons-Saints betting guide, I wrote about Kamara as the game’s biggest mismatch for Atlanta’s tackling-challenged defense. I’d expect Kamara to eat Atlanta’s pass defense for Thanksgiving dinner and leave no leftovers.
Dan Quinn’s defense, which has allowed the most receptions to running backs over the past three seasons, has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to running backs this season (67.2).
The last time Kamara faced the Falcons, he piled up 124 receiving yards; the time before that, 58; and the time before that, 25 on three catches … on just six snaps — not targets, snaps — before departing with injury.
Send a prayer skyward toward the injury gods and bang the over.
Sean Koerner: Julio Jones Leading Receiver +250
I calculated the break-even odds at around +200, so I would bet on this prop down to that number.
Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.