The first round of the NFL Draft takes place tonight and I have a NFL Draft prop pick that I’m eyeing.
NFL Draft Prop Picks for Jalon Walker
Jalon Walker Draft Position Over 8.5 +160 (Caesars)
I usually bet on one or two draft props each year and hadn’t lost in a while — until last year, when Brock Bowers somehow fell out of the top 10 and Cooper DeJean slipped past pick 23.
I’m still a little bitter about those, so I was planning to sit this year out (especially with actual MLB and NBA playoff games going on tonight, in which I’ve got a few props) … but this is one I’m willing to sprinkle on as I finalize my mock.
The market has been locked in on Walker going to the Panthers at 8. And while that’s still the most likely outcome, the situation has gotten a lot murkier.
If Ashton Jeanty sneaks into the top five — say the Bears trade up with the Jaguars, which is generating plenty of smoke — then Mason Graham could easily fall to Carolina at 8. He’s now the favorite to go there in some spots. Plus, a logjam with Kelvin Banks, Armand Membou and Tyler Warren going 6-7 really makes it seem like that it’s pick #8 or bust for Walker.
Do I think Walker should be the favorite to land at ick number 8? Probably.
Do I think he should be priced at +146 to be picked inside the top 8 right now? No.
With all the added uncertainty, I think this should be priced closer to -140 — and that makes this worth a sprinkle.
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