Last weekend, the Luck Rankings went 1-1 for the Wild Card round.
The Luck Under for Denver vs. Buffalo stayed well under the closing total, but so did the total for Minnesota vs. Los Angeles, which was a Luck Over.
That moves playoff Luck Unders to 24-8 (75%) since 2018, while Luck Overs fall to 11-6 (64.7%).
Just one of the four playoff games for the Divisional Round meets our Luck Rankings playoff thresholds, so let’s dive right into it.
Wild Card Weekend Luck Rankings Games
For this year’s Divisional Round, there’s one Luck Total that’s well beyond the +/- 1.25 threshold.
[gameheader haspick=”false” picktext=”Under 51.5″ league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/bal.png” awayname=”Ravens” awayslug=”baltimore-ravens” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” homename=”Bills” homeslug=”buffalo-bills” date=”Sunday, Jan 19″ time=”6:30 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
With a Luck Total of -8.6, this heavyweight battle between Baltimore and Buffalo shows that these two teams have combined to play in games that come in well above those games’ Expected Scores.
The crazier part? It seems the market has properly adjusted, as the total currently sits at 51.5, which is almost exactly where my midweek numbers have this game before adjusting for any potential injuries or other personnel scenarios (my number is between 51 and 51.5).
Given what we saw with the Luck Under last week, when Broncos vs. Bills took some late steam to push all the way up to 49.5 at some shops at close, I’m in no hurry to bet this one as I show no early edge and expect this total to move up closer to kick.
Verdict: Wait