NFL ATS predictions Sunday are headlined by a betting model edge cashing 57%.
Today, a historical angle in Bet Labs is buzzing with four ATS predictions and betting picks to consider on these four NFL matchups:
- Saints vs. Texans
- 49ers vs. Browns
- Panthers vs. Dolphins
- Giants vs. Bills
All four NFL best bets from our PRO model are against the spread Sunday.
Three of the picks Sunday of NFL Week 6 feature double-digit betting lines.
If you’re interested in NFL trends, advanced models and how teams fare in the betting markets under certain situations, perhaps take a second look at these four picks, which run from the early window through Sunday Night Football.
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NFL ATS Predictions, Picks
Today’s model picks derive from a unique betting angle.
Instead of arriving at a prediction on which teams to bet, this NFL model seeks out teams to fade.
Bet Labs’ “Fade Covering Teams” PRO system recommends betting against:
- Teams covering the spread by more than five points on average
- Versus an opponent with a win percentage between 0-60%
- In Week 5 and beyond.
These four ATS picks match the angle Sunday.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1039230″ systemname=”Fade Covering Teams (PRO)” leaguename=”nfl” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20opposing%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%200%25%20and%2060%25%22%2C%22the%20week%20number%20or%20round%20is%205%20or%206%20or%207%20or%208%20or%209%20or%2010%20or%2011%20or%2012%20or%2013%20or%2014%20or%2015%20or%2016%20or%2017%22%2C%22the%20team’s%20average%20cover%20margin%20is%20between%205%20and%20100%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$6,024″ record=”363-278-18″ winpct=”57%”][/betlabsembed]
Saints vs. Texans ATS Pick
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It’s a fade on the Texans and bet on the Saints Sunday in Houston.
The Texans cover the spread by more than a touchdown on average (7.2 ppg) and the Saints’ 60% win mark both fit the bill.
PRO System Prediction: Saints ATS
Browns vs. 49ers ATS Pick
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It’s a fade on the 49ers and recommended pick on the Browns to cover behind backup quarterback P.J. Walker.
San Francisco is the top covering team in the NFL, beating the closing spread by more than 12 points per game. The 49ers are likely due for regression.
The Browns, meanwhile, also fit our “Dogs After Blowout” PRO system. This angle banks on NFL underdogs of three or more, off a loss by 20+ points, which fits Cleveland.
Make that two historical angles favoring the ‘dogs in Niners-Browns Week 6.
PRO System Prediction: Browns ATS
Panthers vs. Dolphins ATS Pick
[gamematchup league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/car.png” awayname=”Panthers” awayslug=”carolina-panthers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/mia.png” homename=”Dolphins” homeslug=”miami-dolphins” date=”Sunday, Oct 15″ time=”1:00pm ET” network=”CBS” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+14″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-14″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”47.5″ col2hometext=”47.5″ col2awayline=”-106o / -114u” col2homeline=”-106o / -114u” col3awaytext=”+660″ col3hometext=”-1000″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”FanDuel” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gamematchup]
The angle here is fading the Dolphins and betting the Panthers against the spread.
Carolina has neither an outright win nor a cover yet this season.
Yet, the Panthers are a perfect match for the system against the red-hot Dolphins (4-1 SU, ATS)
PRO System Prediction: Panthers ATS
Giants vs. Bills ATS Pick
[gamematchup league=”nfl” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/nygd.png” awayname=”Giants” awayslug=”new-york-giants” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/buf.png” homename=”Bills” homeslug=”buffalo-bills” date=”Sunday, Oct 15″ time=”8:20pm ET” network=”NBC” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+14.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-14.5″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”44″ col2hometext=”44″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+700″ col3hometext=”-1099″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”PointsBet” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/51213_PB_logo_96x96.png” bookreviewslug=”pointsbet”][/gamematchup]
The final model prediction is a fade on the Bills and play on the Giants.
The Bills are off a loss in London, but still cover the spread by more than 11 points per game on average.
And due to the G-Men posting just a 20% win percentage, it’s a suggested pick on New York catching double-digits on the road for Sunday Night Football.
PRO System Prediction: Giants ATS
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For more Action Network coverage of the 2023 NFL season, check out the latest NFL odds, as well as the public betting percentage breakdowns for all games.