This week, four NFL teams have caught the attention of PRO Systems for all the wrong reasons — they’ve overperformed and, based on historical trends, are due for regression.
Utilizing our proprietary trends through PRO and Bet Labs, we can unveil this vital betting intel to help make sharper NFL ATS picks this Sunday.
History indicates that Week 5 is a crucial point, where performance trends start to revert to the mean, making it an opportune moment to fade teams.
By leveraging PRO Systems, we’re able to identify four teams that have outperformed expectations. This allows us to pivot our betting strategies and target these overachievers.
NFL Spread Picks, ATS Predictions for Week 5
Action PRO Systems “Fade Covering Teams” suggests a particular trend: Teams covering the spread by more than 5 points per game only cover the spread 43% of the time when facing teams with a win percentage of 0-60%, in Week 5 and beyond.
Now, let’s dive into the four Week 5 picks that align with this trend.
Early Season Upsets flagged these three teams ripe for an upset.
Vikings vs. Jets Spread Pick, Prediction for Week 5
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The Vikings have been a revelation this season, boasting a 4-0 record and surpassing the closing line by an impressive 16.7 points per game.
With Sam Darnold zooming up the MVP odds board, the Vikings seem unstoppable. However, according to our PRO Systems and historical data, this overperformance is unsustainable.
In a London Game this Sunday, the Vikings are ripe for a fade. Taking the Jets at +2.5 looks like a solid bet, given the regression we anticipate.
PRO System Pick: Jets ATS
Browns vs. Commanders Spread Pick, Prediction for Week 5
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Next, we turn our attention to the Commanders. Under rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, they’ve been covering by more than 8 points per game. With back-to-back upset wins on the road, they’ve certainly turned heads, but it’s now time to fade.
Betting on the Browns +3.5 is particularly attractive as the Commanders’ meteoric rise is likely isn’t sustainable.
PRO System Pick: Browns ATS
Raiders vs. Broncos Spread Pick, Prediction for Week 5
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Speaking of back-to-back upset wins on the road behind a rookie quarterback: The Broncos are another team quietly skyrocketing beyond expectations, covering by more than 7 points per game with Bo Nix piloting the offense.
However, history catches up with every team, and the Broncos are no exception. This week’s divisional game makes for a perfect storm to bet against them. Raiders +3 is the bet to back in this scenario.
PRO System Pick: Raiders ATS
Packers vs. Rams Spread Pick, Prediction for Week 5
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Finally, the Packers, who’ve been beating the spread by over 5 points per game, are primed for a regression. The Rams, despite a lackluster 1-3 record and a 25% win percentage, fit within our PRO System criteria.
PRO System Pick: Rams ATS
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.