Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it’s on a game’s spread or total or even a player prop.
I’m here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime TD scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the anytime TD scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let’s break down my NFL player props for Sunday Week 18.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers
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Seahawks vs. Rams
I have one angle for the Seahawks, but it has little to do with the matchup.
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett loves to close the season out with a bang. He has scored a touchdown in the Seahawks’ final game of the regular season in six straight seasons. His role has obviously been heavily reduced this year with the emergence of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but this could be Lockett’s last game with the team he has spent his entire NFL career with, so I wouldn’t mind some action on Lockett to capture the magic one more time against a defense that is resting for the playoffs.
With the Rams expected to sit the majority of key starters with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, I’m likely passing on betting any of their touchdown scorers this week. This might be closer to a preseason game for head coach Sean McVay, and I don’t want anything to do with his team if Garoppolo is under center.
Verdict: Tyler Lockett +340
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Dolphins vs. Jets
There’s not much to be excited about for the Dolphins offense with Tyler Huntley at QB. Sure, he dinked and dunked all over the Browns last week, but Cleveland looked checked out and ready to end the season. I’m not convinced he can do that two games in a row. The Jets defense isn’t really an intimidating unit at this point in the season, but Huntley doesn’t have the passing upside of Tua Tagovailoa.
As a result, a premium needs to be added to all Dolphins pass catchers. I do think TE Jonnu Smith (+210) isn’t a terrible idea if you’re interested in investing in Miami this week. He caught Huntley’s lone touchdown pass last week, and both of Huntley’s passing touchdowns this season were to Smith. It’s also worth noting that of Huntley’s 10 career passing touchdowns in the regular season, eight went to tight ends.
I do expect QB Aaron Rodgers to play in this game but can’t say for sure that he’ll make it through the whole thing. Rodgers has seemed checked out over the last month, but he has still consistently targeted WR Davante Adams (+140).
Rodgers still hasn’t gotten his 500th passing touchdown yet, and Adams has made it known he wants to be one to catch it. This pick is super chalky, but Adams has 11 red-zone targets over the last five games with four receiving touchdowns. The only reason we saw WR Garrett Wilson get a touchdown is that backup QB Tyrod Taylor came in while Rodgers and Adams sat in the fourth quarter of the Jets‘ blowout loss to Buffalo.
Verdict: Jonnu Smith +210 | Davante Adams +145
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49ers vs. Cardinals
One of my best calls of the season for touchdown props was when I bet Kyler Murray to score a touchdown against the Niners at +300. He hadn’t scored yet for the season and proceeded to score in the first quarter with the Cardinals going on to upset San Francisco.
Now, I like him to score again this week, but it’s worth mentioning that there’s an incentive attached. He needs a touchdown and 50+ rush yards to get a $750,000 bonus. My colleague Brian Matthews alerted me that parlaying those two props is as high as +900 at some sportsbooks. While I do think Murray can achieve both, I’ll play it safe at +175, but that’s something to consider if you want to sprinkle on a longer shot.
As for the 49ers, I’m ready to reinvest in QB Josh Dobbs. The one thing we know Dobbs can do is run the ball in the red zone, which he did very well last season for the Vikings and Cardinals.
You could argue this is a “revenge game” for Dobbs since he was with Arizona last season and at +300, I’d be willing to invest in him making a run for himself since he scored six rushing touchdowns last year and scored in Week 17 on mop-up duty against the Lions.
Verdict: Kyler Murray +175 | Josh Dobbs +330
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Chiefs vs. Broncos
There’s only one guy I want to bet on the Chiefs this week, and that’s QB Carson Wentz.
Wentz has fallen out of favor with a few teams in his career, but he’s always been scrappy with his scrambling ability, especially in the red zone. Wentz could be using this game for an audition to another team in 2025 and if/when the Chiefs get near the goal line, I can definitely see him calling his own number to try to score. If you recall, Wentz was in a similar situation last season for the Rams as a Week 18 starter and scored a rushing touchdown on an insane 17 carries against the 49ers.
For Denver, I’m all-in on Marvin Mims Jr. I’ve bet on Mims now in four straight weeks, and he’s rewarded me with a score in two of those games. The Broncos continue to find ways to get Mims involved in the offense and with the Chiefs defense resting starters, he could be in another monster game.
The Broncos need to win this game and will empty their bag of tricks to do so against a resting Chiefs team that will be without most of its big names since it has already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Verdict: Carson Wentz +600 | Marvin Mims +250
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Chargers vs. Raiders
As of 11 p.m. ET on Saturday night, Caesars was the only sportsbook to have posted touchdown odds for this game. If the Steelers had beaten the Bengals, the Chargers would have been locked into the No. 6 seed, and there was uncertainty on sportsbooks’ behalf as to how Los Angeles would treat this game.
Since there wasn’t much of a market, I didn’t make any picks for this game. If I lock in any bets, be sure to follow me in the Action App to get an instant notification.
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Texans vs. Titans
We don’t truly know the Texans‘ motivations because they’re already locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC. This means we’ll likely see QB Davis Mills at some point to step in for QB C.J. Stroud, and more starters will likely be benched as the game progresses, as well.
One player who could feature prominently is WR Diontae Johnson, who has yet to make his Texans debut. Johnson could be called upon to take the WR1 mantle for a big portion of the game with WR Nico Collins potentially being rested for the playoffs. It’s a big leap to assume Johnson would take that role over WR Xavier Hutchinson or John Metchie, but we’ve at least seen Johnson operate as a top option in an NFL offense. At +500, I’ll sprinkle a small bet on Johnson.
With Will Levis at QB for the Titans, it could be a nightmare situation for Titans pass catchers. Levis has as many interceptions (12) as passing touchdowns this season, so he’s not a boost for Tennessee’s skill players.
Everyone will be on RB Tony Pollard and his two-touchdown prop this week because of his contract incentives, but I’m only betting WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine if his odds are over +300. Westbrook-Ikhine has nine touchdowns this season and at least one red-zone target in each of the last five games.
If you can’t get +300 or higher, then pass on Tennessee.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Diontae Johnson +500 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +300 or better
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Jaguars vs. Colts
I know it’s super chalky, but Brian Thomas Jr. is +135 to score and that still isn’t low enough. Thomas has 10 touchdowns this season, including four in the last four games while seeing double-digit targets in five straight games.
Thomas has been the Jaguars‘ best receiver against zone coverage, which the Colts play at a top-three rate in the NFL. Unless you want to take a stab on TE Brenton Strange (+340), I’d just keep banking on the rookie to finish off a terrific first season.
Joe Flacco starting means all Colts pass catchers are live this week.
When these teams played earlier in the season, Flacco was amazing with three passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He spread the ball around, so you can make a case for nearly any Colts receiver this week.
Instead, I’m going with TE Mo-Alie Cox at +900. He caught his only touchdown in that game earlier this season against the Jags and has a decent target rate against man coverage. The Jaguars pass defense has been abysmal this season and ranks last in defensive DVOA against both the pass and opposing tight ends. A long-shot score from a tight end is happening in this game, so pick between Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson or Drew Ogletree.
Verdict: Brian Thomas Jr. +135 | Sprinkle on Mo-Alie Cox +900
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Commanders vs. Cowboys
One player who could see a big boost from a huge Week 18 is Commanders TE Zach Ertz. A lot of people will want to bet on his two-touchdowns prop or ladder his receiving yards, but let’s not get greedy and just take his ATD prop at +275.
Ertz scored when the Commanders played the Cowboys earlier this season, and QB Jayden Daniels is dealing right now. I fully expect the rookie sensation to lean on Ertz on critical third downs or in the red zone while WR Terry McLaurin is matched up with Cowboys CB Daron Bland.
On the other side, I’m not going to pretend like the Cowboys are some offensive juggernaut to be taken seriously. This game, though, is indoors and at home against an overrated Commanders defense. Dallas will score some points.
I have no idea why Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert is +450 to score. WR CeeDee Lamb is out, and Tolbert led all Cowboys receivers in snaps in Week 17 and has scored a touchdown in three straight games and four of his last six.
I get QB Cooper Rush limits any playmaker’s ceiling, but he threw two touchdowns against Washington earlier this season, one of which went to Tolbert. With a red-zone target in five straight games, I’m riding with Tolbert.
Verdict: Zach Ertz +275 | Jalen Tolbert +450
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Saints vs. Buccaneers
Outside of TE Foster Moreau, I’m passing on Saints this week. It was two weeks ago that the Saints became the first team this season to be shut out, so I’m not giddy about their touchdown scorers.
While QB Spencer Rattler has generally struggled, Moreau has two touchdowns in his last three games with the rookie under center. Also, the Bucs rank 27th in defensive DVOA against opposing tight ends this season and have allowed five touchdowns. He also gave an impassioned speech this past week about wanting to compete in Week 18, even though the Saints’ season is going nowhere after this game.
Moreau is the best I can do with the Saints, but I’m not totally sold. I wouldn’t blame anyone for simply passing on any Saints touchdown scorers this week.
The Buccaneers are one of the few teams that control their playoff destiny entering Week 18. They simply have to win this game, and they’ll win the NFC South. Tampa Bay already scored 51 points against the Saints in these teams’ first matchup of the season, so this is a dream for the Bucs.
Naturally, everyone will be looking at WR Mike Evans since he has a ton of incentive-related props, but sportsbooks have squeezed all the value out of his touchdown odds because of that.
The one player I feel like they haven’t caught onto yet is WR2 Jalen McMillan, who has six touchdowns in his last four games. McMillan has been a huge reason for the Bucs’ recent offensive uptick, and he’d be my pick at +150 or higher.
Verdict: Foster Moreau +400 | Jalen McMillan +150
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Panthers vs. Falcons
I’m starting to sound like a broken record here, but Panthers WR Adam Thielen is my go-to guy for Panthers touchdown props. I’ve bet on Thielen to score in each of the last five games, and he’s rewarded me with a winner three times.
Thielen has become QB Bryce Young’s go-to receiver and has led the Panthers in targets in four of the last five games. He’s also been the most effective this season against zone coverage and is second on the Panthers in target share against that defense. That’s great because the Falcons play zone at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Atlanta is also last in touchdowns allowed to receivers this season (21) and all of Thielen’s six red-zone targets have come over the last six games.
I’ve bet on Falcons WR Darnell Mooney in the Falcons’ last two games thinking he would take the top off opposing defenses with QB Michael Penix Jr. under center. Unfortunately, Penix has had accuracy issues so far and is making the Falcons lean heavily on the run game to pace their offense. Even when these teams played earlier this season, it was a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, who combined for almost 200 yards rushing.
At this point, I’d just go with TE Kyle Pitts at +275. He caught a touchdown from Penix last week, and the Panthers have allowed an NFL-high 11 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. This also means we could take Pitts and sprinkle on his backup Charlie Woerner at +1200 in case Pitts gets vultured near the goal line.
Verdict: Adam Thielen +225 | Kyle Pitts +275 | Sprinkle on Charlie Woerner +1200
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Bears vs. Packers
The Bears will try to end the season on a high note after a rough second half while the Packers are playing for playoff seeding, hoping the Cowboys can upset the Commanders.
To me, all the value is on the Bears touchdown scorers this week.
The Packers playing zone coverage at a top-eight rate this season and will likely be shorthanded defensively. Well, D.J. Moore needs 120 yards to get to 1,000 receiving yards for the season, which means there could be added incentive for Caleb Williams to get him the ball. With that, +300 for Moore to score a touchdown is a decent line. I was going to suggest WR Rome Odunze at +400, but the Packers rank poorly against the short pass but well against the deep ball. With that, I’d opt for Moore instead of the rookie, who’s more of a downfield target.
When these teams played in November, it was windy and cold and both relied heavily on the run game. There was only one passing touchdown scored in that one. We know we’ll see plenty of Packers RB Josh Jacobs, so the only Packers player I’d consider is TE Tucker Kraft at +260. Otherwise, I’d pass on the Packers until Wild Card Weekend.
Verdict: D.J. Moore +300 | Tucker Kraft +260
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Giants vs. Eagles
The Giants have a chance to win two games in a row this season, something they haven’t done all season. QB Tanner McKee will be under center for the Eagles, so it’s not impossible.
The two guys I’m targeting are Eagles WR Johnny Wilson (+300) and Giants WR Darius Slayton (+400).
This could be Slayton’s last game with the Giants. He only has two touchdowns this season but is still playing over 80% of snaps and features in the majority of two-receiver sets. If the Eagles make it a point to roll coverage over to WR Malik Nabers with CB Quinyon Mitchell and take him out of the game, Slayton should see plenty of one-on-one looks.
Wilson is a big body in the end zone and has already scored this season. I expect the Eagles to give a lot of work to RB Kenneth Gainwell and feature a run-first offense, but Wilson should see a few red-zone looks. He’s the Eagles player I’d recommend this week.
Verdict: Darius Slayton +400 | Johnny Wilson +300
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Bills vs. Patriots
Unsurprisingly, touchdown odds were not posted anywhere as of 11 p.m. ET on Saturday night.
Josh Allen is going to start for the Bills but is unlikely to play the whole game, and we have no clarity on the rest of the Bills’ starters. For the Patriots, Drake Maye is questionable, and whether he or Jacoby Brissett (or Joe Milton this week maybe) is under center affects that offense in a big way.
So, even if we have odds on Sunday morning, I’m passing on this game for the week.