Monday Night Football for NFL Week 17 features the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. This NFC Championship rematch from a season ago kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Let’s get into my Lions vs. 49ers player props for Monday Night Football.
NFL odds tonight have the Lions installed as 3.5-point favorites on the road. My props lean into the idea that Detroit will control this game while San Francisco plays from behind.
Sam Farley’s Lions vs. 49ers Player Props
Odds below as of Sunday night.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jahmyr Gibbs Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-135)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/det.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/detroit-lions” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Lions face a 49ers secondary that has allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game this season. While I anticipate the Lions will succeed through the air, we can expect Jahmyr Gibbs to continue getting a lot of work on the ground.
Detroit has consistently used the run game to stunning effect under Ben Johnson, with 20+ carries for its running back duo on a near-weekly basis.
Last week was Gibbs’ first game with David Montgomery sidelined from the start, and we saw the former Alabama man get 23 carries against the Bears.
Gibbs is the most dynamic and explosive player on the Lions roster; we can expect him to get another 20+ carries with Montgomery injured.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Brock Purdy Over 30.5 Passing Attempts (-108)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/odds/san-francisco-49ers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
There are two reasons to think that Brock Purdy will go over this passing attempts total against the Lions on Monday Night Football.
Firstly, the Lions are favorites. You’d assume the 49ers will be chasing them given how dynamic Detroit’s offense has been all season. That game script means we’ll surely see Purdy attempt a lot of passes.
Secondly, there are recent games as evidence — Purdy has exceeded this number in each of the past two weeks.
He’s been under center for eight of the 49ers’ nine defeats, and he’s had 31 or more passing attempts in five of those games, with all but one being close to this line.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Isaac Guerendo Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-120)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/sf.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Isaac Guerendo is set to return after missing last week’s defeat to the Dolphins.
Guerendo dominated the carries in his previous two games before getting injured and probably will again. However, he’s not established enough to be confident that he’ll heavily outcarry Patrick Taylor, who led the team in that aspect during Guerendo’s absence.
Assuming Guerendo does get the bulk of the carries, he has to contend with a Lions defense with the fourth-best mark in terms of rushing yards allowed per game (98.5).
Combine the possibility of the 49ers playing from behind and this rushing yards total begins to feel a little too high. Take the under on Guerendo.
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